AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Oklahoma’s state primary runoff elections

WASHINGTON — Three Republicans Oklahoma State lawmakers will go before voters in a runoff election for the second time in about two months on Tuesday. They are among candidates in 10 state districts who are once again vying for the Republican nomination after failing to win an outright majority in the June 18 primary.

In Senate District 3, Sen. Blake “Cowboy” Stephens faces a challenge from physician Julie McIntosh in his bid for a second term. Stephens is backed by Attorney General Gentner Drummond. McIntosh, a former county health official, is backed by Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, U.S. Rep. Josh Brecheen (listed on McIntosh’s campaign website as “John Brecheen”) and Carolyn Coburn, the widow of former Republican U.S. Sen. Tom Coburn.

Stephens defeated McIntosh in the June 18 primary, 38.1 percent to 37.4 percent. Wagoner City Councilman Patrick Sampson came in third with 24.5 percent. Stephens or McIntosh will face independent candidate Margaret Cook in November. There will be no Democrat on the ballot.

In House District 32, Rep. Kevin Wallace faces a tough re-election battle against energy executive Jim Shaw. Wallace, the chairman of the House Appropriations and Budget Committee, has the governor’s backing but finished second in the June 18 primary with about 42% of the vote, compared to about 46% for Shaw. The winner will run unopposed in November.

In House District 98, State Representative Dean Davis is seeking a fourth term, but must first approve a primary challenge from Gabe Woolley, an elementary school teacher, podcast host and parental rights advocate. Davis was censored by the House and was relieved of his commission duties after his death arrest in March 2023 for public drunkenness. His commissions were reinstated after he written apology almost a year later in February. He was earlier charged in August 2019 with driving under the influence, speeding and obstructing a police officer.

In the June 18 primary, Davis was the top vote-getter by one vote. He received 911 votes to Woolley’s 910, with the remaining 327 votes going to J. David Taylor. The winner of the Republican runoff will face Democrat Cathy Smythe in November.

Among the seven remaining runoffs without an incumbent is the Republican contest in Senate District 15, where Lisa Standridge is running to succeed her husband, outgoing GOP Sen. Rob Standridge. She was the top vote-getter in the June 18 primary, followed by Robert Keyes, an executive at a drilling and construction company. The winner will face Democrat Elizabeth Foreman.

Half of Oklahoma’s 28 Senate seats and all 101 of the state’s House seats are up for election in 2024, though many of those races are uncontested or have no Democratic nominee. Republicans hold overwhelming supermajorities in both chambers.

Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:

The Oklahoma state primary is Tuesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

The Associated Press will break down the voting results Tuesday, announcing the winners of 10 races, all Republican primaries. The state Senate runoffs will be held in the 3rd, 15th, 33rd and 47th districts, while the state Senate runoffs will be held in the 20th, 32nd, 50th, 53rd, 60th and 98th districts.

Only registered Republicans are eligible to vote in the Republican primary. Democrats and independents are not eligible to participate.

Senate District 3 in western Oklahoma includes parts of Cherokee, Mayes, Rogers and Wagoner Counties. Wagoner contributed 65% of the district’s total vote in the June primary. McIntosh carried Wagoner and Rogers, while Stephens won Cherokee and Mayes. Sampson, the Wagoner councilman, had his best showing in Wagoner, coming in second, beating Stephens by 12 votes.

Wagoner also plays a significant role in House District 98, accounting for 61% of the vote in the June primary. Woolley led Davis in Wagoner, 44% to 42%, a margin of just 20 votes. Davis won Tulsa County, 43% to 40%, or 21 votes.

Lincoln County is key to winning races in House District 32 in central Oklahoma. It captured 91% of the vote in the district’s June primary. Shaw defeated Wallace in Lincoln, 47% to 42%. He also won Logan County by a wide margin, while Wallace prevailed in Payne County.

Runoffs are typically events with lower turnout than the original elections that caused them. This can slow the process of calling the race for a competitive contest, especially in smaller state districts. In these cases, determining the outcome can depend on a small handful of ballots that have yet to be counted.

The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has been declared and explain why.

Oklahoma’s automatic recount law applies only to ballot proposals, not to races involving candidates. Candidates can request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin. The fee is refunded if the recount changes the outcome of the race.

As of August 1, there were nearly 2.4 million registered voters in Oklahoma, of whom 52% were Republican, 28% Democrat and 20% Independent.

More than 297,000 voters participated in the June 18 primary, most of them Republicans. Turnout in the Republican primary was about 20 percent of registered Republicans.

Among the 10 jurisdictions forced into runoffs, the pre-election vote in the June 18 primary varied by district. The highest was in House District 53, with 16% of votes cast by election day. The lowest was in Senate District 33, with 7%. In seven of the 10 districts, the pre-election vote was at least 12%.

As of Thursday, just over 10,000 votes had been cast for Election Day across the state, in addition to the 10 state legislative elections the AP will cover. Of those, about 5,800, or 58% of the votes cast for Election Day, were from Republicans.

In the June 18 primary, AP first reported results at 8:08 p.m. ET, or eight minutes after the polls closed. The election night count ended at 10:22 p.m. ET with about 99.9% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there are 70 days left until the general election in November.

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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.

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