AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Michigan’s state primaries

NEWAYGO, Michigan — While Michigan remains one of the crown jewels of the United States, the fall campaign for the presidencyTuesday’s focus turns to state primaries, which could play a key role in determining power in the closely divided U.S. Senate and House of Representatives, as well as state legislatures.

Topping the list of contests is the race to replace Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow, who announced in January that she not seeking a fifth termThe Democratic primary is led by the three-term U.S. Representative. Elissa Slotkin and actor and small business owner in Detroit Harper Hill.

Slotkin has kept her Lansing-area swing district in Democratic hands by narrow margins since her first election in 2018. She won her current 7th Congressional District with just under 52% of the vote in 2022, her largest vote share of her three campaigns. She won a similar district in 2018 and 2020 with less than 51% of the vote.

If she wins the primary as expected, she will face another tough battle against the likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, who is seeking to end his party’s 24-year drought in the U.S. Senate races in Michigan. The former House Intelligence Committee chairman and former CNN anchor launched his campaign in September and has been since then the Republican primary field has thinned out while the state’s party establishment has rallied behind him. Rogers’ remaining primary opponents include former U.S. Rep. Justin Amash, best known for vote to impeach President Donald Trump and to leave the GOP to become an independent and then a Libertarian. Sherry O’Donnell, a physician and former congressional candidate, is also running.

Slotkin enjoys a significant financial advantage in the race, having raised and banked more campaign funds than the rest of the Democratic and Republican fields combined.

Democrat Curtis Hertel and Republican Tom Barrett, both former senators, are running to replace Slotkin in the 7th Congressional District. Both are uncontested for their parties’ nominations. Voters in the 7th District narrowly supported Republican Trump in 2016 and Democrat Joe Biden in 2020.

Other Michigan congressional seats that could decide control of the House of Representatives in November are in the 3rd, 8th and 10th districts. All of those districts held primaries on Tuesday.

In West Michigan’s 3rd District, based in Grand Rapids, Republicans Paul Hudson and Michael Markey are vying for the nomination to face Democratic U.S. Rep. Hillary Scholten, who is favored in her primary. Democrat Hillary Clinton narrowly defeated Trump among 3rd District voters in 2016, while Biden won more easily in 2020.

In the 8th District, which includes Flint and Saginaw, three Democrats and three Republicans are running to replace Democratic U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee. not seeking a seventh term.

In the 10th District, which includes most of Macomb and part of Oakland counties in Detroit’s northern suburbs, Democrat Carl Marlinga is hoping for a rematch against first-term Republican U.S. Rep. John James, but he must first defeat three other candidates for his party’s nomination. James defeated Marlinga in the 2022 election, 48.8 percent to 48.3 percent. Voters in the 10th District slightly favored Trump in the 2016 and 2020 elections. Macomb is home to a type of key swing voters often called Reagan Democrats.

Voters across the state will also choose nominees in 67 contested primaries for the House of Representatives. Democrats won a narrow majority of both chambers of the state legislature in the 2022 midterm elections. All 110 seats in the state House of Representatives are at stake in November. Seats in the state Senate are not up for election until 2026.

Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:

Michigan’s primary election is Tuesday. The last polls close at 9 p.m. ET, though most polls in the state close at 8 p.m. ET. All polls close at 8 p.m. local time.

The Associated Press news agency will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and state Houses of Representatives.

Michigan has an open primary system, meaning that any registered voter may participate in any party’s primary.

The top counties with the highest vote turnout in Michigan elections are Wayne (home to Detroit), Oakland, Macomb, Kent (home to Grand Rapids), Genesee (home to Flint), and Washtenaw (home to Ann Arbor).

In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Rogers is the favorite, but he could do particularly well in the areas he represented in Congress. That generally includes the Republican parts of Oakland County and the Republican areas roughly between Detroit, Lansing and Flint. He lives in southwest Michigan.

Detroit businessman Sandy Pensler withdrew from the race in July but will still be on the ballot. He received 45 percent of the vote in the 2018 U.S. Senate primary against James. Pensler won most of Northern Michigan and the eastern third of the Upper Peninsula. His departure from the race should benefit Rogers, whom he supported.

The Associated Press does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it determines that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race is called, the AP will continue to report on any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

Recounts are automatic in statewide races in Michigan if the margin between the top two candidates is 2,000 votes or less. Candidates can request and pay for a recount regardless of the vote margin, and the state covers the cost if the recount changes the outcome. State party chairs can request recounts for state legislative races if the margin is less than 500 votes in state Senate races and less than 200 votes in state House races. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome. A new recount law The bill, signed by Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in July, will not take effect until after the 2024 presidential election.

As of July 9, there were approximately 8.3 million registered voters in Michigan.

In the 2022 midterm primary elections, turnout was about 12% of registered voters for the Democratic primary and 13% for the Republican primary. About 55% of voters in the 2022 midterm primary elections and about 35% of voters in the 2024 presidential primary elections had cast their ballots before Primary Day.

A total of 870,2307 votes had been cast before the primaries on Thursday.

In the 2022 midterm primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:13 p.m. ET, or 13 minutes after the first polls closed. The election night count ended at 4:05 a.m. ET with about 96% of the total votes counted.

As of Tuesday, there are 91 days left until the November general election.

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