WASHINGTON — Delaware’s most prominent elected official, President Joe Bidenmay have turned the presidential race on its head in July when he dropped his bid for a second term, but it concerns the threatened departure of two other prominent Democratic officeholders, Governor. John Carney and the American senator Tom Karperwhich will have a domino effect on the vote in Tuesday’s primary.
Carney will leave statewide office next year after two terms as governor, two terms as lieutenant governor and three terms as the state’s sole representative in the U.S. House of Representatives. His departure has set off contentious primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations.
The Democratic candidates are Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long, New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer and National Wildlife Federation CEO and former state Natural Resources Secretary Collin O’Mara. The Republican candidates are retired police officer Jerry Price, House Minority Leader Michael Ramone and small business owner Bobby Williamson.
Hall-Long has Carney’s support and is the only candidate in the race who has previously won statewide office. But the two-term lieutenant governor has had a difficult summer after a state-ordered forensic audit of her campaign finances revealed irregularities over a period of eight years.
Emails seen by the Associated Press also show that members of the lieutenant governor’s staff involved in campaign activities on her behalf during government business hours, which is prohibited by state law. Hall-Long has disputed the findings of the forensic audit, saying the problems identified in the report were the result of minor accounting errors. Nevertheless, Meyer, her chief rival, called for a federal investigation in the matter.
Carney is not eligible to run for a third term as governor, but will still appear on some state ballots as a candidate for mayor of Wilmington, Delaware’s most populous city. His opponent in the Democratic primary is another former statewide officeholder, Velda Jones-Potter, who was appointed state treasurer in 2009 and served for about two years before losing her bid for a full term.
Long-Hall is also term-limited as lieutenant governor, and four women have filed to replace her. State Rep. Sherry Dorsey-Walker, state Sen. Kyle Evans-Gay and state party Vice Chair Debbie Harrington are running for the Democratic nomination. Former state Rep. Ruth Briggs King is unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Carper’s announcement in 2023 that he would not seek a fifth term created the state’s first open U.S. Senate race since 2010, when U.S. Sen. Chris Coons was elected to the seat vacated by Biden to become vice president. Democratic U.S. Congresswoman Lisa Blunt Rochester is running to replace Carper, as is Republican former Walmart executive Eric Hansen. Both are unopposed for their parties’ nominations and will not appear on Tuesday’s ballot.
With Blunt Rochester candidate to replace Carper in the U.S. SenateBoth Democrats and Republicans will hold contested primaries to take over the seat she has held since 2017. Democratic Senator Sarah McBride is the best-known and best-funded candidate in both primary fields. She is endorsed by Carper, Coons and Rochester and had $1.7 million in the bank as of late June. Her only bipartisan competitor to disclose her fundraising was Republican Donyale Hall, who reported a campaign war chest of just under $7,500. If elected, McBride would first openly transgender member of Congress.
While control of both the U.S. Senate and House of Representatives may come down to just a handful of competitive races, Delaware’s seats are expected to remain firmly in the Democratic camp. Once a reliable bellwether for presidential elections, Delaware has shifted heavily Democratic since the 1990s. Republicans haven’t won a governor since 1988, a U.S. Senate seat since 1994, and a U.S. House seat since 2008.
About half of Delaware’s 21 Senate seats and all 41 of the state’s House seats are up for grabs in the 2024 elections, though only 12 districts are holding contested primaries Tuesday. Democrats hold roughly two-to-one majorities in each chamber.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
Delaware’s primary election is Tuesday, with polls closing at 8 p.m. ET.
The Associated Press will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for governor, lieutenant governor, U.S. House of Representatives, Senate, state House of Representatives, insurance commissioner and mayor of Wilmington.
Voters in Delaware who are registered with a political party may only vote in that party’s primary. Democrats may not vote in the Republican primary, or vice versa. Independent or unaffiliated voters may not vote in either primary.
Of Delaware’s three counties, New Castle is by far the largest in population and the most Democratic. In the 2020 presidential election, New Castle’s votes accounted for about 57% of the statewide vote, compared to about 26% for Sussex County and 17% for Kent County.
For Democrats running in a statewide primary, a reasonable path to victory, short of winning all three counties, is to win New Castle by enough to offset losses in one or both of the other two counties. That’s the path Democratic state Insurance Commissioner Trinidad Navarro took in his 2016 primary victory. In Tuesday’s gubernatorial election, where both Hall-Long and Meyer claim New Castle as their political base, there’s a chance the two could largely split the vote there, leaving Kent and Sussex to play a decisive role. In her 2016 primary for lieutenant governor, Hall-Long narrowly won New Castle and lost Sussex, but still managed to come out on top with about 30% of the statewide vote when no candidate could consolidate the remaining votes behind her.
For Republicans, it’s possible for a candidate in a multi-candidate field to win a statewide primary while losing New Castle, as long as they have a substantial margin in Sussex County, the state’s Republican stronghold. That’s how Julianne Murray won the Republican primary for governor in 2020.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has yet been declared and explain why.
Recounts in Delaware are automatic for state legislative and county races if the vote margin is less than 1,000 votes or 0.5% of the total votes cast for the two candidates. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it determines the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
As of August 1, there were approximately 780,000 registered voters in Delaware. Of those, 45% were Democrats, 26% Republicans, and about 22% were not registered with a party.
In the 2022 primary, turnout was about 16% of registered voters, according to the Delaware Department of Elections. About 27% of Democratic primary voters and 12% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before primary day.
As of Thursday, a total of 22,293 votes had been cast in the primaries, about 72% in the Democratic primary and 28% in the Republican primary.
In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 8:30 p.m. ET, or 30 minutes after the polls closed. The election night count ended at 12:38 a.m. ET, when all votes were counted.
As of Tuesday, there are 56 days left until the November general election.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.