Why Anthony Albanese’s clean energy plans could suffer a crippling blow after Trump’s US election win

Just over a year ago, Anthony Albanese and his fiancée Jodie Haydon were treated to an extensive three-course meal with pumpkin soup, short ribs and chocolate mousse cake during the state dinner with Joe and Jill Biden at the White House.

The Prime Minister released a joint statement with the then US President welcoming ‘a new era of strategic cooperation between the US and Australia’.

Mr Albanese spoke of the ‘three pillars of our alliance: defence, economy, and cooperation on climate and clean energy’.

But that third pillar will almost certainly topple and shatter in the wake of Donald Trump’s historic return to power.

The president-elect has not been shy in expressing his views on climate change, calling it a “hoax” and “one of the biggest scams of all time.”

During his first term as president in 2016, he dismantled nearly a hundred climate policies.

He is likely to try to pull the US out of the Paris climate accord for a second time, which aims to keep average global temperatures below 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

Trump has also informed his supporters of his plans to “drill, baby, drill” by massively increasing U.S. production of oil and gas.

Australia’s richest person, Gina Rinehart, proudly unveiled a sign reading ‘drill, baby, drill’ at Trump’s election party at Mar-a-Lago.

He has also said he would ban all offshore wind projects on the first day of his presidency, claiming they kill whales.

What does this mean for Australia?

A key aspect of that ‘third pillar’ that maintained diplomatic relations between Australia and the US was the signing of a Climate, Critical Minerals and Clean Energy Transformation Compact in March 2023 between Mr Biden and Mr Albanese on the sidelines of the G7.

The Compact aims to coordinate both countries’ climate and clean energy initiatives in the Indo-Pacific, with a particular focus on electric vehicle supply chains – especially the crucial minerals required in battery production – in addition to manufacturing of green hydrogen.

But Samuel Garrett, a research associate at the United States Studies Center, said Trump is “very likely to walk away” from the Compact.

“We will almost certainly see this wiped from history if Trump is re-elected, at least for his term in office,” Garrett said. SBS.

“But that said, much of the content of the Climate Pact is likely to be retained, especially aspects relating to issues such as cooperation on crucial minerals, which occupy a very important aspect of that agreement.”

Mr Garrett suggested that while Trump could “delay deeper climate cooperation between Australia and the US” and “damage public opinion of the US in Australia… there are many ways in which cooperation will continue”.

Dr. Emma Shortis, director of international and security affairs at the Australian Institute think tank, told the ABC that Trump’s success had “huge implications for Australia”.

“A new Trump administration will undo all of the United States’ climate action,” she said.

She added: “Australia and our partners in the region will need to proceed increasingly cautiously as the US becomes more predictable and volatile in the coming weeks and months.”

Before Trump was elected, Chris Bowen, the Minister of Climate and Energy, downplayed the impact he would have on the global fight against climate change.

‘First of all, it’s the United States. So the state functions are very important. And maybe unlike 2016 where the outcome came as a surprise, if it’s a Trump administration, people are making more preparations,” Bowen shared. The Guardian.

“Second, it is difficult to legislate in the United States, but it is also difficult to repeal legislation. So the Inflation Reduction Act is the law of the land and will remain the law of the land unless it is repealed, which will be very difficult to do.

‘And third, the private sector can help. In the United States, they know it, regardless of federal mandates [climate action] is a good thing.’

The Inflation Reduction Act, which was signed into law in 2022, sparked a “clean energy arms race” around the world by investing $370 billion in clean energy projects through a series of subsidies and tax credits.

Mr Bowen acknowledged that a Trump presidency would change the dynamics of the global climate fight, but insisted it would not radically change its trajectory.

This may be wishful thinking, as the US is the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, behind only China.

Mr Bowen is also chairing something called the ‘umbrella group’ at the COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan next week.

The Umbrella Group, made up of countries including the US, Britain, Canada and Japan, is presenting a united front at the roughly 200-nation summit.

For example, at Cop28, the Umbrella Group refused to sign an agreement that would be a ‘death certificate’ for small Pacific islands.

It is unclear whether the US will withdraw from the Umbrella Group now that Trump has been elected president.

Another issue on Mr Bowen’s mind is undoubtedly when he will announce Australia’s 2035 emissions reduction target under the Paris climate agreement.

The deadline is February, but Mr Bowen has refused to be pinned down on whether he will unveil a target before the next federal election.

Some have pointed out that this is because the main issue likely to dominate the election is the cost of living crisis, and the government does not want to risk focusing more on climate goals that have no discernible impact in the short term the voters. -term lives.

This is made worse by the fact that opposition leader Peter Dutton has stated that he will not announce the 2035 target before the election, and by his lobbying for nuclear power – a policy favored by Trump.

Professor Michelle Grattan, esteemed journalist and chief political correspondent The conversationargued that Mr Bowen was being threatened from all sides over the 2035 target.

“A bold target would make the government more vulnerable just when Labor would like to draw attention to the coalition’s problematic nuclear policy,” Prof Grattan wrote.

“On the other hand, if the target was modest, it would be exploited by the Greens.”