Anthony Albanese puts his foot in his mouth AGAIN in ABC TV interview as he declares victory over inflation: PETER VAN ONSELEN

The government and opposition will choose what suits their political narratives from the latest monthly inflation data released this morning.

Total inflation rose slightly on Wednesday, from 2.1 percent to 2.3 percent. Not a huge increase, but an increase nonetheless.

It was a good reminder why politicians shouldn’t get ahead of themselves, and that’s exactly what the Prime Minister did on morning television, just hours before the new inflation figures were announced.

He told ABC News Breakfast that inflation “is now at a two ahead and coming down.” The first part remains accurate, but not the last part.

No wonder some within Labor circles are unsure how the Prime Minister will perform once this year’s formal election campaign gets under way.

Inflation has simply risen, not what Labor wanted to hear as it counts down to the election.

You have to wonder how a politician with as much experience as Albo manages to put his foot in his mouth so often.

Yesterday he was busy insulting anyone who uses cabanas to fight the sun on the beach, today he declares victory and claims that inflation is falling just hours before it rises.

Sometimes saying less is more.

In Albo’s case, he has to avoid details because he doesn’t always get the data right.

Today it was what happens to inflation… Remember the last federal election campaign in 2022 when he capped the cash rate on day one?

No wonder some within Labor circles are unsure how the Prime Minister will perform once this year’s formal election campaign gets under way.

That said, one key figure – the ‘trimmed average inflation’ – fell today, from 3.5 percent to 3.2 percent.

What is the trimmed average inflation rate? It is the inflation outcome minus the fastest and slowest price changes.

It’s designed to give us a better idea of ​​where the true cost of living lies, by removing one-off changes that can skew the overall figure. Think of floods, forest fires and government subsidies.

The fact that the trimmed average is higher than the headline figure is why the Reserve Bank has been unwilling to cut rates in recent months.

The target range for inflation is between 2 and 3 percent. The main figure is there, but not the shortened average.

That’s because Labor has used energy cuts to artificially drive down the headline figure as part of its push for a cut in interest rates ahead of the election.

The RBA is having none of it.

But watch today and in the days to come, the Treasurer and those around him are beginning to extol the virtues of the truncated average figure coming down – even though in the past they only wanted to focus on the overall rate because it was lower is!

Now that nominal interest rates have risen marginally, making fun of the Prime Minister’s comment just hours earlier that they were ‘falling’, Labor won’t want you to look at that figure.

What does all this mean for the elections? There remains a reasonable chance that the RBA will cut rates at its next meeting in February, but probably not.

Most economists are confident that even if rates don’t come down then, they will do so by the April meeting, if not the month before, in March.

No wonder there is now widespread speculation that Albo will call the election for April 12, after WA voters go to the polls for their state elections.

If he did, he would get a rate cut just before election day, in the final days of the campaign.

While such a cut would say more about the weakening state of the Australian economy than about Labour’s anti-inflation prowess, the Prime Minister will take what he can get.

It would also get him to the polls before he had to submit a nasty budget, full of debt, a huge budget deficit and spending.

None of that is good if you’re trying to convince voters that you are the best party to manage the economy.