Bombshell blow for Anthony Albanese just months out from a federal election as he faces being booted from the Lodge after just one term

Anthony Albanese’s support in NSW and Victoria is collapsing just months before he looks to seek re-election at the federal election, new polling shows.

Labor’s primary vote share has fallen from 33 to 29 percent in Australia’s two most populous states, putting crucial seats and the Labor majority in doubt, a survey by Resolve Strategic for Nine newspapers.

In contrast, the coalition, led by Peter Dutton, has seen a dramatic boost in Victoria, with its primary vote rising from 33 to 38 per cent, while support in NSW rose from 37 to 38 per cent.

The news for Labor is also bad in Western Australia, where the primary vote share has fallen from 37 to 30 percent since the last election, while the Coalition has risen from 35 to 37 percent.

It could mark a reversal of the four seats Labor took from the coalition in 2022 – Pearce, Hasluck, Swan and Tangney – with a new electorate in Bullwinkel also set to be contested in the next federal election.

The revival of the coalition in Victoria could also be bad news for the Teals as it targets the two seats in Melbourne that the Liberals lost to them at the last election.

Monique Ryan owns Kooyong by a margin of just 2.2 percent and Zoe Daniel has Goldstein by 3.3 percent, according to ABC’s election pendulum.

Overall, the Resolve Political Monitor showed the Coalition with a 51 percent lead in two-party terms, compared to Labor on 49 percent, assuming preferences matched the last election.

However, the close result was within the margin of error, indicating that the federal election remains hotly contested and could end in a hung parliament.

Mr Albanese maintained a slight lead over Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister in Victoria, where he leads 36 to 34 per cent, and in NSW, where he has a 38 to 36 per cent lead.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the poll shows Labor is in danger of losing power after just one term in government, the first federally in Australia since 1931.

“In 2022, we rightly expected Labor to win with less than a third of the primary vote, to gain seats in Western Australia, for the Greens to gain seats in Brisbane, and for the Liberal heartland to be captured by the Teals. Mr. Reed said.

Peter Dutton (pictured right with his wife Kirilly) is almost neck and neck with Mr Albanese as favorite Prime Minister

‘This time we’ll be looking for things that go against the accepted wisdom, such as the possibility of a first-term government being voted out of office, the Liberals gaining seats in Victoria, the Greens losing seats and independents being denied a second term . ‘

While the Greens have held their primary vote steady at 12 percent nationally, they have fallen from 13 percent to 11 percent in Queensland, which could threaten the three seats they won from the major parties in the last election.

Overall, Queensland remained relatively unchanged from previous quarterly poll analyses.

Labor saw its number of primary votes fall slightly from 27 to 26 percent, while that of the coalition rose from 40 to 41 percent.

Resolve Political Monitor’s quarterly polling analysis is based on responses from 4,831 voters from October to December 2024.

Labor has also lost ground in Newspolls conducted for The Australian.

A Newspolls analysis from the last quarter of 2024 shows that 35- to 49-year-old voters, typically mortgage holders who determine many swing voters, are avoiding the Albanian government.

When the prime minister was questioned at a press conference on Sunday about his declining popularity, he played down the issue.

“What I’m concerned about is helping fellow Australians,” he said. ‘I have been underestimated my entire political life.

“I’m focused on making a difference to the cost of living, making a difference to the plans we have for the future.

“We have already announced a number of changes, including tackling intergenerational equity issues by canceling 20 per cent of HECS debt for people if we are re-elected.”