Labor is struggling to keep a key demographic group onside as federal election troubles continue.
A Newspolls analysis from the last quarter of 2025 shows that 35- to 49-year-old voters, typically mortgage holders who determine many swing voters, are avoiding the Albanian government as elections loom next year.
Support for Labor among this group fell to 31 percent in the October to December election period, compared to 35 percent from the quarter ending in June and 33 percent from the quarter ending in September.
This has cut Labour’s lead in this demographic group, seen as particularly sensitive to cost-of-living and interest rate pressures, from 53 to 47 per cent six months ago, to now neck-and-neck with the Coalition.
The Coalition’s primary vote among this age group has risen to 37 percent.
Peter Dutton’s opposition is now leading in all age groups except among younger voters.
In this group, Labor has drawn voters from the Greens and has a two-party preference advantage over the Coalition of 63 to 37.
Anthony Albanese’s government is losing support among the key voter group aged 35 to 49
The largest lead that the coalition enjoys among the age groups is 62-38 years for those over 65.
NSW and Victoria appear to be the states most likely to settle the next election, and neither bodes well for Anthony Albanese.
Victoria has seen a five per cent swing against the Albanian government, with Labor’s primary vote falling to 30 per cent since the 2022 election.
The Coalition’s primary vote share increased from 36 to 39 percent over the same period, meaning they have achieved a level tie in that state based on two-party preference.
Anthony Albanese’s approval rating as leader in Victoria has also fallen from 46 per cent in June to 41 per cent now.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton (pictured with his wife Kirilly) has received good polling news from Victoria
Meanwhile, his disapproval rating rose from 48 per cent to 53 per cent in the same period, giving him a net rating of minus 12 in Victoria, which is the same as Mr Eutton.
The two-party battle in NSW has come down to 50-50, with both parties seeing their primary vote rise by two points: the Coalition to 40 percent and Labor to 32 percent.
Meanwhile, support for the Greens in NSW has fallen by two points to 10 per cent.
Labor has gained support in WA, with the two-party lead increasing to 54-46 from 52-48 last quarter.
Both the Coalition and Labor lost primaries in Queensland, with the LNP’s falling by two points to 41 percent, while Labor fell by one point to 29 percent.
The Coalition has a bipartisan lead in that state at 53-47, which is slightly weaker than the 54-46 it achieved in the last quarterly poll.