>
House price inflation continued to slow in September, with prices rising 9.5 percent over the year, compared to an increase of 13.1 percent in August, according to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics.
However, house prices did not change from month to month. The average UK home was worth £295,000 in September 2022, £26,000 higher than this time last year, but unchanged from August.
The figures are based on sales prices at the Land Registry and therefore take into account the sale of real estate that was agreed at a time when mortgage interest rates had already started to rise in the summer, but before the mini-budget led to major jumps and unrest.
Explaining the numbers, the ONS said the annual percentage change slowed this month as UK house prices rose sharply in September 2021, coinciding with changes to the Stamp Duty Land Tax.
House price growth fell from 13.1% in August to 9.5% in September, according to the ONS
In October last year, the zero rate band returned to its previous level of £125,000 from £250,000 after the government increased tax relief on purchases to support the market during Covid-19.
It meant scrapping the maximum savings of £2,500 on stamp duty homebuyers enjoyed between July and September 2021. Previously, they could have saved up to £15,000 between July 2020 and the end of June 2021.
While home prices continue to be supported by a lack of homes coming onto the market, many expect prices to fall over the next year due to rising mortgage rates and tough economic conditions.
In October, CPI inflation rose to 11.1 percent, higher than forecasts of around 10.7 percent, adding pressure to household finances.
In addition, while mortgage rates are starting to fall, they are still significantly higher than earlier in the year.
Before the mini-Budget on Friday, Sept. 23, the average two-year fixed rate across all loan-to-value brackets was 4.74 percent and the five-year fixed rate was 4.75 percent, according to Moneyfacts.
Rates stood at 6.28 percent and 6.07 percent, respectively, on Nov. 14, after both fell slightly from their peak of more than 6.5 percent in October.
You can view tables of the best buy and best mortgage rates for your circumstances with our mortgage finder powered by London & Country– and find out what you’re actually paying using our new and improved mortgage calculator.
Fixed-rate mortgages have been falling since last month after a sharp rise
Jeremy Leaf, North London estate agent and former RICS residential chairman, says: ‘This most comprehensive of all housing market surveys, albeit a little dated, confirms what we are seeing at the sharp end.
Prices continue to be supported by a lack of inventory as buyers look to take advantage of competitive mortgage rates before mini budget impacts pushed them higher.
“However, concerns about further inflation increases and possible implications arising from the autumn statement are contributing to a reduction in new contracts.”
Nathan Emerson, CEO of real estate brokerage Propertymark, added: ‘Things are changing and our members are seeing a steady shift to a buyer’s market where the majority of sales are now negotiated at asking price or below.
“Demand continues to outpace supply and despite buyers bargaining harder with higher loan rates to be reckoned with, realistically priced homes are still selling.”
Real estate firm Savills has predicted house prices will fall by 10 percent next year and rise by 1 percent in 2024. As recently as May, the broker predicted a fall of only 1 percent in 2023, but the sharp rise in mortgage rates has led to a gloomy outlook.
Rents are up almost 4% in one year
However, as house prices cooled, private rents paid by tenants in the UK rose 3.8 percent in the 12 months to October 2022, according to separate ONS data. The increase is up from 3.7 percent in the year to September.
The Association of Housing Rental Agents reports that the demand for homes continues to rise, as do rents. The supply of available rental properties has not increased in the past four months.
Private rents up 3.8% in the UK in the 12 months to October 2022
Nicky Stevenson, managing director of national real estate group Fine & Country, said: ‘All eyes will now be on Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s fall statement, which is expected to include both tax increases and spending cuts.
“Changes to capital gains tax deductions could negatively impact the buy-to-let sector at a time when many landlords are already leaving and potential new entrants may find the benefits no longer outweigh the uncertainty.
“A private rental sector that is withdrawing would mean a deepening of the regions’ housing crisis and rising rents for tenants.”
Some links in this article may be affiliate links. If you click on it, we may earn a small commission. That helps us fund This Is Money and use it for free. We do not write articles to promote products. We do not allow any commercial relationship to compromise our editorial independence.