Andy Farrell needs to plot careful path through World Cup pool stage and get selections right as Ireland prepare for opening game against Romania

The World Cup has never been far from Andy Farrell’s thoughts.

Since succeeding Joe Schmidt after the ill-fated 2019 season, the Irish head coach has always had one eye on France 2023.

Years of planning and big projects – such as the midweek Maori games in New Zealand, the Emerging Ireland tour and getting Gary Keegan on board – are all geared towards the big event.

Farrell had a front row seat for England’s debacle on home soil in 2015 and four years later he had a front row seat as Ireland’s World Cup chances unraveled, months before the tournament in Japan came into focus.

He’s heeded the lessons and now Farrell will look to implement his own plan.

The Irish coach has to make a number of selection decisions before each match

In terms of tactics, team culture, in hindsight, the input from his backroom team and the quality and quantity of players, he will feel this side is in a very good place.

The key for Farrell and his management team is how they progress through the pool stages. If all goes well, Ireland will emerge from Pool B. It was either winner or second in this group of five teams.

Either way, they face a seismic quarter-final at the Stade de France on the weekend of October 14-15.

It says a lot about the enormous challenge Farrell’s troops face when the All Blacks – the team that destroyed Ireland in a depressingly one-sided quarter-final in Tokyo at the last World Cup – are seen as the lesser of two evils.

It will either be New Zealand – with Schmidt in the background – or the tournament hosts on home turf in the last eight.

Peaking for that game is paramount and Farrell must manage his resources carefully in the coming weeks. He can’t flog his frontliners, but wrapping them in cotton wool isn’t a viable option either.

And there are plenty of warnings from history on both fronts. Eddie O’Sullivan felt his best and brightest players were suffering from a chronic lack of match fitness when they played in France in 2007.

The then Irish boss barely adjusted his starting line-up during the group stages. Despite the compelling form of Alan Quinlan and Stephen Ferris – both of whom were apparently tearing up trees in training – O’Sullivan stuck to the tried and tested. Suffice it to say, things didn’t go so well.

However, too much rotation also disrupts the rhythm of a team.

How Farrell negotiates the coming weeks will be fascinating, starting with Saturday’s low-key opener in Bordeaux.

September 9: Romania, Stade de Bordeaux

Ireland, for all their grim history at this tournament, have a pretty decent record when it comes to their opening pool match. The national team has won seven of the nine opening matches at the World Cup.

A 13-6 loss to Wales in 1987 and a 43-19 defeat at the hands of a Jonah Lomu-inspired New Zealander are the only marks on the record.

On the other hand, Ireland have faced fairly mediocre opposition in the first weekend of rugby’s showpiece event, a list that includes Zimbabwe, the United States (twice), Romania, Namibia and Canada.

The Romanians will provide the opposition again this weekend and the Oaks should provide little stress for the world No. 1 team.

Johnny Sexton could return to the Ireland team for their opening match against Romania

A clash with the pool minnows – who are currently 18 places below Ireland in the global pecking order – would seemingly be the perfect time to give the fringe players a chance.

However, Farrell will likely choose a very strong side. Expect a team that comes close to the team that rode past England in Dublin three weeks ago.

All the big names will probably be on board. They really enjoy being joined by Johnny Sexton.

The Ireland captain has not been seen on a rugby field since the Grand Slam decider against England in March. Injuries and suspensions have kept the 38-year-old skipper out of action for almost six months.

Sexton is chronically short of playing time and a goal against Romania in week one is phase one of the Faz’s master plan. Because it is highly unlikely that Sexton will play the following opponents on the schedule…

September 16: Tonga, Stade de Beaujoire

Ireland’s hard-fought meeting with Samoa in Bayonne felt like a dry-run for this pool meeting in Nantes.

Farrell sent a second series to take on the Pacific Islanders and they were pushed all the way into the Stade Jean Dauger, with the Six Nations sneaking home with a four-point win after a thrilling encounter in Bayonne.

The same personnel will take on the Tongans. The crucial clash with South Africa is just seven days away from this match and Farrell could opt to keep the likes of Sexton, Tadhg Furlong, James Ryan, Garry Ringrose and Hugo Keenan out of the danger zone.

Ireland’s match against Samoa was a trial run for their pool match with Tonga at the World Cup

On the other hand, Samoa Farrell’s performance will have given plenty of food for thought. Tonga is peppered with powerhouse clients such as Charles Piutau, Pita Akhi and Vaea Fifita.

He will rely on a weakened side to get the job done, but – mindful of the calming influence Ryan and Peter O’Mahony brought from the bench when introduced from the bench against Samoa – he can pile his replacements with experience just in case things go wrong. wrong.

If all goes to plan, Ireland will be undefeated and ready for the big game in Paris.

September 23: South Africa, Stade de France

The world champion in Saint Denis kicks off in prime time on Saturday evening. It doesn’t get bigger than this. The French and Kiwi camps will be watching with interest.

Competing at full strength against a global heavyweight has not done well in the past.

Schmidt’s Ireland made a big statement against France in the group stages of the 2015 edition. However, that 24-9 victory in a heaving Millennium Stadium came at a significant cost.

O’Mahony, Paul O’Connell and Sexton were ruled out of the quarter-final due to serious injuries, while Sean O’Brien received a suspension.

Ireland’s biggest test will come against world champions South Africa in Saint Denis

Beating the Springboks would be a huge statement of intent from Ireland. If they lose some key players to injuries before the knockout stages, is that justified? These are scenarios that have been floating around in Farrell’s head for a while.

Sending out a weakened team simply does not fit the mentality of the coach and this group of players. They will all want to beat the Boks, regardless of quarter-final permutations or injury risk.

The two-week break between this match and the final pool match with the Scots will certainly allow Farrell to field his strongest possible side against South Africa.

October 7: Scotland, Stade de France

Another crucial pool game.

It could be a must-win or a free-hit. Who knows? Gregor Townsend’s team could even lead Group B if they manage to turn around the Boks in Marseille this weekend.

It feels like the stakes are high against their Six Nations rivals. There won’t be much room to maneuver at this point when it comes to roster selection, especially against a team with so many dangerous runners in the broken field.

All the big names will perform again in Paris.

There will be a two-week break before Ireland play their final pool match against Scotland

Securing their place in the quarter-finals will be of utmost importance. Then the real work will begin as Ireland look to end 36 years of pain and finally win a World Cup knockout match.

The path has never looked dangerous and you wonder how much damage you will do along the way.

Lots of food for thought for Farrell, indeed.