The biggest losers from yesterday’s collapse of Syria’s dictatorship – apart from the ruthless Assad family and its criminal acolytes – are Iran’s ruling mullahs.
Their dreams of Middle Eastern hegemony are now in shambles, their genocidal goal of wiping Israel off the map is now a mission impossible, and their ability to supply their murderous allies across the region with weapons and ground boots is now lame.
There are, of course, more losers.
Brazen Russian military might, along with Iranian proxy forces, saved Bashar al-Assad’s skin when civil war engulfed the country following the 2011 Arab Spring. Now, with a humiliating loss of face, President Putin has essentially had to admit that Russia has suffered so many losses of men and women. equipment in Ukraine that the country is unable to continue the fight on two fronts.
Rather than rushing to Assad’s aid again, Moscow has withdrawn much of its military personnel and equipment from Syria to bolster its Ukraine-based forces, sidelining al-Assad in the process.
Russia will still try to hold on to its Syrian naval and air bases, which allow it to project power in the eastern Mediterranean. But the Kremlin has lost a key client state, increasing its influence in the region.
Former Syrian President Bashar Assad greets Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
The Chinese are losers too. Syria joined the Belt and Road initiative in 2022, aimed at spreading Chinese power and influence around the world. Beijing has a joint venture with Syria’s national oil company. All this must now be in jeopardy.
But in reality, China’s Belt and Road game is running out of steam and Syria is marginal to China’s broader interest. In contrast to the regime in Iran, for whom Syria was central.
The evil al-Assad has fled Damascus – destination unknown as I write this – leaving the ayatollahs wondering whether their days are now numbered too.
Iran’s decades-old strategic ambitions have gone up in smoke. There is said to be a growing sense of panic in Tehran among the ruling elite. No wonder. If Assad can be overthrown so easily, what are the chances of their survival?
When Hamas terrorists crossed the Gaza-Israel border on October 7 last year to carry out a barbaric massacre of innocent civilians, few saw it as the precursor to a fundamental reshaping of the balance of power in the Middle East.
Rather, it was yet another terrorist atrocity in a region already notorious for them, albeit particularly brutal in its carnage and scale.
In reality, it turned upside down the geopolitics of the Middle East, whose modern history can now be divided into two parts: before October 7 – and after October 7.
Just look at the seismic developments since that fateful day. Hamas, armed and financed by Iran, has been all but destroyed as a fighting force, while its base in Gaza lies in ruins.
Hezbollah, the most powerful of all Iranian proxy forces, came to Hamas’s aid with rocket attacks on Israel from its bases in southern Lebanon. Israel retaliated by also crippling Hezbollah.
In just over a year, Israel beheaded the senior commandos of Hamas and Hezbollah, killing thousands of their most battle-hardened fighters.
Iran has built them, at enormous cost, into ubiquitous threats to Israel on its borders, the vanguard of its mission to overwhelm Israel with enemies and destroy it. These threats no longer exist.
When the Iranian puppet regime in Damascus began to falter last month due to a new rebel attack, Hezbollah (like Russia) was unable to come to Assad’s aid as it had in the past. Tehran reluctantly realized that the regime could no longer be saved.
Instead of deploying their own forces to support their client dictator, Iranian diplomats and soldiers rushed for the exit. Assad’s days were numbered. But Iran has not simply abandoned Syria. It has also effectively abandoned Hamas and Hezbollah, because without Syria it is much harder to rebuild and rearm them, as I will explain.
Years ago I remember the then young King of Jordan (he had just succeeded his father) explaining to me how the goal of the Ayatollahs of Tehran was to become the dominant power in the Middle East through a vast arc of military might and to create influence that stretched from Iran through Iraq to Syria and to southern Lebanon.
Rebels are celebrating today in Damascus after the overthrow of the Assad regime
Iran was a Persian, Shia Muslim power in a largely Arab, Sunni Muslim world. But it would unite the region by being the most virulently anti-Israel voice, thereby asserting its claim to the leadership of political Islam, with powerful proxy forces that can lean on the unconvinced.
The progress was impressive. It helped the Shiites take control of post-Saddam Iraq, came to the aid of Assad (whose minority Alawite group is a Shiite sect) when his regime was threatened with civil war, and built up the Shiite Hezbollah to become the most powerful force in Lebanon. But what took decades to build has been undone in a year.
The loss of Syria is the most serious blow yet. It was through Syria that the supply chain of weapons reached Hezbollah, Hamas, Palestinian terrorists in the West Bank and, through Syrian shipping ports and airports, its allies in Yemen and beyond.
To intimidate Israel, Revolutionary Guard bases were established on Syrian territory. These bases and supply chains have now been shattered as Iran’s network of proxies and customers across the Middle East crumbles.
Israel is right in its post-October 7 uncompromising stance. Palestinians who thought Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran were the routes to a better future have once again made the wrong choice.
It’s worth noting, before fashionable opinion sweeps this under the rug, that Iran is now reeling as Israel continues to hold back foreign policy pressure from its Western allies and their liberal media echo chambers. ignored.
Washington, London and Paris all urged Israel to show restraint against Hamas and not open a second front against Hezbollah. The New York Times, the BBC and Le Monde increased pressure on Israel to withdraw by continuously highlighting the humanitarian costs of the conflict, usually with suspect Hamas statistics.
But Israel gave it only cursory attention, pursuing its own interests and doing us all a favor.
Israel can feel a lot safer today. America is happy that the Assad regime is no longer there and Iran has been put in its box. But like its European allies and Israel, the country is concerned about what will now fill the vacuum in Syria.
Donald Trump is keen to avoid foreign entanglements and in reality there is no desire on either side of the aisle in Washington to get involved in Syria.
But there are still 900 American troops in the south of the country, Assad leaves behind a stockpile of chemical weapons and a new Islamic State is not allowed to take root. The Trump administration cannot completely wash its hands of post-Assad Syria.
But the biggest headaches are in Tehran. Its foreign policy is in shambles, its reputation is in the mud and its options are limited. It could avoid sabre-rattling and try to become more accommodating. That would be wise given the collapse of its allies and the formidable alliance – Israel, America, the Sunni Arab Gulf states – now facing charges against it.
But for the hardliners, the best way to regain the initiative and restore national pride is to increase the pace of Iran’s nuclear program. Last week, US intelligence reported that Iran had now amassed enough material to make more than a dozen nuclear weapons.
The people of Iran would of course be the first to have their say. They have never shared the regime’s anti-Semitism, its obsession with Israel, its imperialist expansion or its passion for medieval theocracy.
They have seen billions wasted (as everyone can now see) on organizations like Hezbollah, while their lives are destroyed by rising inflation, high unemployment, failing public services and general repression.
I am not claiming that the ayatollahs are still wavering. But they have never been so vulnerable. The smell of regime change hangs in the air of Tehran.