Analysis: Fighting erupts in Sudan after months of tension

Sudan awoke on Saturday to heavy clashes between the army and a powerful paramilitary force known as the Rapid Support Forces. The two rivals have long competed for relevance and power, but an internationally backed political process that began last year exacerbated tensions between them, analysts and activists say.

Civilians in the capital of Khartoum reported seeing armored vehicles from both forces driving through the streets, while hearing heavy gunfire in multiple city neighborhoods.

The RSF said it has taken control of Khartoum’s presidential palace and international airport, which could not be confirmed. The group also said it seized Merowe Airport, which is home to Sudanese and Egyptian warplanes. Sudan’s army chief, General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, denied the RSF’s claims.

Al Jazeera was unable to verify the claims and the situation on the ground remained unclear. Witnesses saw fighter jets in the sky, presumably from the military as the RSF has no air arsenal.

“Planes literally fly over our house. We can hear shots everywhere,” Dania Atabani, a Sudanese activist, told Al Jazeera from Khartoum.

A group of doctors said at least three civilians were killed as fighting escalated, including two at Khartoum airport and one in North Kordofan state.

Not long ago, the RSF and the military teamed up to derail Sudan’s transition to democracy by staging a coup d’état on October 25, 2021. The move sparked a year of anti-coup protests and international pressure, prompting both forces to sign the framework agreement in December. 5.

That settlement ushered in a new political process that promised to address key issues before a final deal was struck that would restore a civilian administration tasked with leading the country to elections in two years.

Security sector reform was the most important and challenging issue to be resolved in order to contain the security forces. But the process was rushed and ad hoc, with the international community hoping to wrap it up in days or weeks to celebrate the signing of a new agreement, according to four diplomats not authorized to comment.

As a result, the political process precipitated a confrontation between the RSF and the military.

“The framework agreement…raised important existential issues for both armed forces and their leaders, such as [RSF] integration into a single army, military divestment from lucrative sectors of the economy and the prospect of [soldiers] facing justice for past wrongdoings,” Jonas Horner, an independent consultant.

“Most of all, the two forces were afraid of being left weaker than the other.”

source of tension

The RSF grew out of Arab armed groups accused of carrying out massacres in Darfur in the early 2000s, according to global human rights organizations including Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International.

It was founded in 2013 by former President Omar al-Bashir, who placed the group directly under his command and tasked it with protecting his regime from army generals and his fearsome intelligence agency.

The plan didn’t work. In April 2019, both the military and the RSF turned against al-Bashir after months of pro-democracy protests. The RSF continued to operate independently of the military, as the two forces competed for state property, foreign patrons, legitimacy, and recruits.

Even after the two forces overthrew Sudan’s civilian administration in October 2021, experts and activists warned that the medium to long-term interests of both forces would diverge.

“Both the army and the RSF had a marriage of convenience, but they continued to ignore the issue of the integration of the RSF into the army,” said Hamid Murtada, a Sudanese analyst and advocate of the pro-democracy street movement, a day before the clashes with Al Jazeera. broke out.

“Despite my reservations about the political process and the framework agreement, it showed us that the question [of security sector reform] had to be asked and it brought all these tensions to the surface,” he added.

There is also evidence that Bashir-era loyalists in the military – linked to the Islamist movement in Sudan – feared that a new political deal would significantly damage their economic and political power.

Many of these loyalists blame Hemeti for turning against al-Bashir in 2019.

To thwart them, the RSF repositioned itself as a cooperative partner for pro-democracy politicians in exchange for maintaining its relevance and power.

As a result, the RSF pushed Army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan to sign a new agreement in hopes of gaining more legitimacy and support. But many suspect that al-Burhan was under pressure from his top man not to sign.

Lack of urgency?

Violence appeared imminent when the RSF was sent to the northern town of Merowe two days ago, prompting a military warning that the RSF must withdraw or security in Sudan could collapse.

Diplomatic sources said the Quad — the US, UK, UAE and Saudi Arabia — have been most active in mediating the dispute between the RSF and the military in recent days.

The UN political mission in Sudan, known as UNITAMS, has also made separate efforts, according to informed sources who were not authorized to speak officially due to the sensitive nature of the talks.

“The international community should have understood the situation much better and acted with more seriousness and urgency in recent days. The writing has been hanging on the wall for so long,” said Nada Wanni, an independent researcher speaking to Al Jazeera from Khartoum.

“The efforts should have been more synergized and much more serious from everyone to … warn the two leaders of very dire consequences that would affect them personally if they took this step.”

Now that fighting has broken out, many civilians fear that the two forces will embark on a protracted battle at the expense of everyone else. RSF leader, Mohamad Hamdan “Hemeti” Dagalo, recently told Al Jazeera Arabic that al-Burhan will be brought to justice or die like a dog.

“Civil protection should now be the priority of every member of the international community,” Wanni stressed. “They must exert every influence and pressure they have on the leaders of these two camps to ensure that they stop risking the lives of Sudanese civilians.”