America’s top election forecaster reveals prospect of a Donald Trump victory – as he issues chilling warning: ‘Make a contingency plan NOW’

America’s top election expert has issued a chilling warning, revealing that Trump could win the 2024 race and that people should start making ‘contingency plans’ now.

Nate Silver, a former professional poker player and political analyst, has revealed that his model gives Donald Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.

Silver, known for his uncanny ability to predict election outcomes, said The guard that people should ‘make their emergency plans as quickly as possible’ as he promoted his new book ‘On the Edge’ in London.

“One potential benefit of a 50/50 forecast is that people can make their emergency plans right away,” he said.

It doesn’t mean you need [to stockpile] “ammunition and peanut butter” – that giggling again – “but it means, you know, what is your strategy for protecting American institutions in the event of a second Trump term?”

‘Or, in 2028 [or] 2032, a Trump-like Republican who might be more effective than Trump? If I were a liberal donor, for example, I would want to start funding now … to protect institutions in that eventuality, rather than giving another $100,000 to Kamala Harris, who has more money than she needs,” he continued.

While he gave Trump a 58 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, he gave Harris a 60 percent chance of winning the census.

“People interpret these polls in their own way, and we have an evidence-based way of doing that, with a track record of over 16 years,” he added.

“I’m not being patronizing, right? We give good information. We give a lot of context about it. … I’m an old-fashioned traditionalist and I believe: give people good information and that enables them to make better decisions.”

“I think I value intuition and emotional judgment more because they actually add value, rather than having to fight against them.”

Silver, known for his uncanny ability to predict election outcomes, told The Guardian that Trump could win and that people should “make their contingency plans as soon as possible”

The political guru feared that crucial “measures” intended to prevent “complete and utter disaster” during Trump’s first presidency had been “weakened” in the years since.

Still, Silver warned Democrats against portraying Trump as an existential threat to democracy.

That strategy of doom-mongering is “very unattractive to floating voters,” he said.

“Last time there were many measures that could have prevented a total disaster, but those measures have been weakened now,” he said.

‘The idea of ​​holding voters hostage in that sense is very unappealing … Biden said something like, ‘OK, sure, I may run until I’m 86 and can barely form a complete sentence, but if you don’t vote for me, the country gets it’ — that’s a very unappealing message to undecided voters.’

As for Harris, Silver sees “joy” in her campaign but worries she’s kept too many Biden-era advisers

As for Harris, Silver sees “joy” in her campaign, but she worries she has kept too many Biden-era advisers.

“Whereas Harris brings more joy and is clearly a very talented woman,” he worries, however, that she “retained too many of the Biden people who thought it was a good idea to keep running [him].

“I think she had to,” he added.