Americans sour on the primary election process and major political parties, an AP-NORC poll says
WASHINGTON — With the Republican primary process about to begin, many Republicans are unsure that votes will be counted correctly in their presidential primaries, amid widespread pessimism about the future of both the Democratic and Republican parties , according to a new poll from The Associated. Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
About a third of Republicans say they are “a lot” or “fairly” confident that votes in the upcoming Republican primaries and caucuses will be counted correctly. About three in 10 Republicans report a “moderate” amount of trust, and 32% say they have “only a little” or “none at all.” In contrast, 72% of Democrats are very confident that their party will accurately count votes in the primaries. Democrats are also slightly more likely than Republicans to have high confidence in the accuracy of the Republican Party's vote count.
Republicans generally remain doubtful that votes are being counted accurately — in the early contests or beyond. About a quarter of Republicans say they are at least “fairly” confident that votes will be accurately counted in the 2024 presidential election, significantly lower than Democrats. Just under half of U.S. adults (46%) believe the same, which is in line with an AP-NORC poll conducted in June.
The skepticism among Republicans comes after former President Donald Trump spent years wrongly blaming his 2020 loss on election fraud. Federal and state election officials and Trump's own attorney general have said there is no credible evidence the election was tainted. The former president's fraud allegations were also roundly dismissed by courts, including by Trump-appointed judges.
“Nothing is going to be fair because the last election was rigged,” said Julie Duggan, 32, of Chicago, a Trump voter, referring to 2020. “I don't trust any of them right now.”
The AP-NORC poll found widespread lack of trust in both major political parties among American adults overall.
About a quarter of American adults say they have “only a little” confidence or “no confidence at all” that both the Democratic Party and the Republican Party have a fair process for selecting a presidential candidate. About half of independents have this little confidence in either party's processes, compared to a quarter of Republicans and 19% of Democrats.
Just under half of American adults – 46% – say they are pessimistic about how the country's leaders are chosen.
About half of American adults are pessimistic about the future of the Republican Party, including a third of Republicans and 45% of Independents. The poll found that 45% of American adults are pessimistic about the future of the Democratic Party, including about a quarter of Democrats and 41% of independents.
“The way they spend our money, send it all over the world and don't protect our people here in the United States of America,” said Gary Jackson, a 65-year-old retired truck driver and Republican in Boise, Idaho. “Right now I'm not impressed with either party.”
Christine Allen, a political independent in Gambrills, Maryland, sees her state's last governor, Larry Hogan, a moderate Republican, as a model for the country. But Hogan declined to participate in the Republican Party's presidential primaries, which she said is emblematic of how the two-party system prevents talented leaders from holding office.
“Everyone is now a bunch of kids, stomping their feet until they get their way,” says Allen, 44. 'Everyone is to blame here. There are no winners.”
Nevertheless, Allen thinks the primaries will be fair. “They're fairer than the Electoral College,” she said.
Even those who identify with the two political parties are unsure about who their organizations will nominate. A recent AP-NORC poll found that Democrats and Republicans are also less than confident that their party's process will result in a candidate who can win the general election in November. Furthermore, there are some doubts on both sides whether the emerging candidates will represent the positions of their party or Americans in general.
Only three in 10 Democrats say they are confident that the Democratic Party's process will result in a candidate whose views represent most Americans. About a quarter of Democrats believe the process will produce a candidate whose views represent their own. Likewise, about three-in-ten Republicans say the Republican process will produce a candidate who represents a majority of Americans. About a third of Republicans expect they will get a candidate whose views represent their own.
Mark Richards, a 33-year-old high school teacher in Toledo, Ohio, and a Democrat, said he expects President Joe Biden to be nominated by the party again despite his low job approval ratings. The incumbent president will face only token opposition from the Democratic presidential primaries.
“I feel like there has to be someone better, but I don't think another Democrat will dethrone Joe Biden,” Richards said.
While Richards believes the primary process will be fair and votes will be counted accurately, he sees the nomination system as inherently flawed. “It's all about money, who can get the most money from PACs and SuperPACs,” he said, referring to political committees that donate to candidates or spend millions of dollars on their behalf.
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The survey of 1,074 adults was conducted from November 30 to December. August 4, 2023, using a sample from NORC's probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to represent the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points for all respondents.
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Riccardi reported from Denver.