Nearly half of the forests that make up the Amazon rainforest are on the verge of collapsing within the next 16 years, an international team of scientists announced today.
Droughts, deforestation and fires are threatening rainforests, according to a new study, which found that between 10 and 47 percent of rainforests could be so distressed and degraded by 2050 that they enter a downward spiral of ecosystem decline will come.
The Amazon rainforest, sometimes described as ‘the lungs of the earth’ because its trees produce so much of the earth’s oxygen, is dependent on heavy rainfall. If humidity levels continue to drop as they have been, the crucial forests could end up as grasslands.
As much as 38 percent of the remaining Amazon rainforest has been degraded by logging, under-canopy fires and repeated extreme drought, while road networks push damage through the core of the ecosystem, the study said.
Wildfires, both human-caused and drought-related, tend to spread most near roads where roads are being built
All these crimes against the Amazon, one of the Earth’s best defenses against global warming, have made the country less resilient.
This damage hasn’t necessarily pushed the country past the point of no return, but that point is getting closer every year, according to the study authors, a team of European and Brazilian scientists.
Long-standing natural relationships between environmental conditions and the Amazon rainforest ecosystem are being replaced by new ones, quickly making life more difficult for native wildlife and the people living in the Amazon, the study authors explained.
The Amazon rainforest, also called ‘the lungs of the earth’, is home to more than 10,000 species of plants and animals. They are threatened with extinction if too much of the Amazon is lost
Trees, plants, animals and people living in the forest have evolved over millions of years to cope with the hot, humid conditions of the local climate, as well as seasonal flooding and the shallow, sandy, nutrient-poor soil.
The rainforest and its inhabitants thrive under these conditions.
But as forest fires and droughts become more common, plants and animals cannot adapt quickly enough to the changing conditions.
Furthermore, the loss of forest in one area can lead to “a self-propelling feedback loop” that leads to the loss of other forest areas, the report said. study published in the magazine Nature.
And the impact of forest loss does not stop at the borders of the Amazon.
Deforestation for agriculture is a major cause of the degradation and deforestation of the Amazon region. Scientists say that by 2050, 10 to 47 percent of the smaller forests that make up the Amazon could be damaged beyond repair, in a downward spiral of destruction
The moisture carried through the air by the Amazons’ so-called ‘flying rivers’ – large amounts of water vapor carried through the air – is essential for rainfall in large parts of the South American continent.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) scientist Boris Sakschewski, one of the study’s authors, said: ‘The southeastern Amazon has already shifted from a carbon sink to a source – meaning the current amount of human pressure is too great. high for the region to maintain its rainforest status in the long term.
‘But the problem doesn’t stop there. Because rainforests enrich the air with a lot of moisture, which forms the basis for precipitation in the west and south of the continent, the loss of forest in one place can lead to the loss of forest in another place in a self-propelling feedback loop or simply ‘tipping’. “
Current drought levels are the worst in the region in fifty years, and the Rio Negro, one of the region’s most important rivers, is at its lowest level in a hundred years.
The Amazon as a whole stores carbon equivalent to 15 to 20 years of current human CO2 emissions. The loss of the forest will further drive global warming and intensify the impact on the forest, the report said.
The study also analyzed examples of disturbed forests in different parts of the Amazon to understand what could happen to the ecosystem.
In some cases, the collapse of a forest may not be obvious, the authors wrote.
For example, in some areas where trees have been cut down or burned, bamboo forests or so-called ‘liana forests’ can thrive.
Both bamboo and liana forests may seem like flourishing nature at first glance; after all, they have green plants.
But bamboo and lianas can prevent large trees from taking root and restoring the canopy, leaving these areas trapped in a degraded state dominated by opportunistic plants.
In other cases, the forest no longer regenerates and remains trapped in an open, flammable state.
The expansion of open, flammable ecosystems in the Amazon’s core is of particular concern because they can spread fires to adjacent forests.
The researchers called for limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and limiting deforestation to 10 percent of the original tree cover in the Amazon rainforest. This requires an end to large-scale deforestation and the restoration of at least 5 percent of the region – where as much as 15 percent has already fallen. lost its forests.
Co-author Niklas Boers, from PIK and professor of Earth system modeling at the Technical University of Munich, said: ‘To keep the Amazon rainforest within safe boundaries, local and global efforts must be combined.
‘Deforestation and forest degradation must stop and recovery must expand.
‘Moreover, much more needs to be done to stop greenhouse gas emissions worldwide.’