When Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his followers decided Saturday evening to torpedo a long-standing regional norm and attack Israel directly, they undoubtedly thought they had chosen their moment perfectly.
But they appear to have made a glaring strategic error.
After Hamas raped, slaughtered and kidnapped about 1,400 Israelis on October 7, most of the world looked at Israel with sympathy. Jerusalem wanted to destroy Hamas and bring home its own hostages – as it was morally obligated to do.
But the story soon changed. As more images emerged of the war’s horrific human consequences, especially from civilians in Gaza, opinions changed.
The Muslim world was outraged, while the hard left in the West vilified Israel as uniquely evil. With disturbing speed, the Jewish state seemed to become a near pariah.
Iranian politicians during an open session in parliament in Tehran, when Iran launched a horrific drone attack on Israel
An Iranian news broadcast about missiles being launched towards Israel
Drones are launched during a military exercise at a secret location in Iran (File Image)
Never mind the human suffering in other conflicts. It doesn’t matter that Hamas is hiding its fighters among the civilian population. Israel was found guilty – as always.
The Iranian mullahs were watching – as always. For them this was an opportunity.
As a Persian Shiite state in a largely Sunni Arab region, Iran – like Israel itself – is isolated. (The two countries indeed have more in common than they would admit.)
Now that Israel is being portrayed as the bully of the Middle East, the mullahs can portray themselves as opposing it – working to divide Israel from its neighbors and win the approval of millions of Arabs frustrated by the growing friendliness of Israel. their own leaders against the Jewish state.
Finally, on April 1, the pretext for Iran to attack Israel outright came: Israel’s attack on the Iranian consulate in Syria, which killed seven senior Iranian military officials, including a top commander.
The retaliation, of course, came over the weekend, when Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel.
The result is that Iran now once again faces a robust alliance of Israel, the democracies and a number of Arab states.
This morning, Gaza is no longer on the front pages, and the case for military sanctions against Israel is much harder to make.
How can you deny military equipment to a country that has just suffered a mass attack by the world’s leading sponsor of terror?
Israel can now also argue that it is more imperative than ever that it destroy Hamas – Gaza’s genocidal proxy in Tehran – not to mention the other Iranian-backed militias, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen.
So what happens next? It was Iran’s decades-long campaign of near-constant violence that helped lead several Arab neighbors to sign peace treaties and normalization deals with Israel. The attack will only reinforce their fears.
But 84-year-old Khamenei is dying. While the succession of his son Mojtaba seems more or less assured, senior clerics are already vying for positions under a new regime.
Many will reason that cracking down on Israel is the surest way to secure Israel. In that respect, the future looks bleak.
Back in Israel, War Cabinet Minister Benny Gantz has said that when the time is right, Jerusalem will “demand a price” for Iran’s attack. Some fear they will attack Tehran’s nuclear facilities.
This would risk a wider war, but many still believe Israel would have the right to do so. Yet more evidence that the mullahs have blundered.