>
Alexander Volkanovski will have to deliver the performance of his life to defeat Islam Makhachev at UFC 284.
The Australian will go down as one of the greats, but most believe he has bitten off more than he can chew moving up to lightweight to take on the formidable Russian.
At least on paper, Makhachev has all the aces. He is the best fighter in the UFC, fighting a smaller man, who lacks KO power.
Volkanovski is a brilliant athlete, he has incredible punch, durability and fighting IQ, but he just doesn’t possess the kind of concussive ability that will keep Makhachev up at night.
Bookies have Volkanovski as a 3/1 odd, that’s saying something given all he’s accomplished, ruling the roost at 145lbs since 2019.
So how can you do it? What are the key areas that Volkanovski must exploit if he wants to achieve double champion status and follow in the footsteps of Conor McGregor, Daniel Cormier, Henry Cejudo, Georges St-Pierre and Amanda Nunes?
Islam Makhachev (left) is the formidable opponent of Alexander Volkanovski (right)
Volkanovski has struggled out of compromising positions and could need him again.
Prepare for the worst possible positions
It will be surprising if Volkanovski manages to survive without being dragged to the ground and forced to fight his back.
Makhachev has fought bigger men and cut through their takedown defense like a hot knife through butter.
Then Volkanovski will know that he has to survive in compromising positions and then he will choose his moment to escape.
The 34-year-old knows this and is planning accordingly.
He said Main event: ‘The fact that I’m going up [in weight]It’s always going to be like, “Oh, you know,” especially since I’m also reasonably small, short.
The Australian champion somehow escaped an incredibly tight guillotine choke in 2021
‘Every session I’m doing is a specific position for this fight. I don’t want to waste a single minute on something I’m not going to do. Right now, every minute I spend in the gym is specific to Islam.
“Obviously, if we don’t get knocked down, yes, beauty, but in my head I need to prepare like we’re going down.”
I need people to put me in the worst possible position, and I’ll fight from there. That’s why you will always see me serene, wherever I am. Even if he puts me in a bad light, you’ll probably see a smile on my face, you’ll probably see me talking to him, like, “Hey, is this all you got? You’re not as strong as you thought, okay? I’m not as small as you thought, okay?”
Makhachev will have the sweltering top position he wants at some point in the fight and Volkanovski should have enough tricks up his sleeve to limit the damage, weather the storm and get back on his feet.
Volkanovki will need to muster every ounce of his never say die again attitude into this fight.
Pepper Makhachev with low kicks
Volkanovski has excellent slashing low kicks and we’ve seen how debilitating they can be.
During a five-round fight, he could reverse early by splashing legs and taking Makhachev off base.
Of course, you’ll need to be in range for that and the Russian will be well aware of what’s coming, but if he can land three or four in the same spot, it could pay off down the line.
This will work especially well if Makhachev is pressing or advancing.
Any frustration could make the Russian overzealous against a man who thinks he can’t knock him out. That would create a window of opportunity for kicks.
The Dagestani is a fierce competitor and will need to be kept at bay with low kicks.
steal rounds
Volkanovski is 8/1 to win by knockout or TKO and 20/1 to win by submission, meaning the general consensus is that he’ll have to take it to the scorecards to secure it.
Charles Oliveira was surprisingly outfooted by Makhachev, but Volkanovski must make him pay.
If he is on the ground for two minutes of a round, he has to win the other three decisively on his feet.
Volkanovski needs to strike the fine balance between staying active without overdoing himself and getting into range where Makhachev can initiate a clinch, from where he often secures takedowns.
The Australian will be fighting on home soil and should look to win rounds at lightweight.
“I need to capitalize when I’m on my feet, if he knocks me down and I get back up I need to get my hands on him,” he admitted.
‘I need to win the rounds or put him to sleep. I’m trying to find that chin and I find it difficult.’
If you look at the data, Volkanovski should have no problem keeping busy. He has gone five rounds many times and hits an average of 6.79 strikes per minute.
By contrast, Makhachev averages 2.73 but, crucially, only absorbs 0.95. Volkanovski will have to make sure the Russian takes much more than the usual punishment to score rounds in his favor.
Volkanovski must maintain his usual performance on his feet and make him count in the battle on his feet.
Be careful with the left leg
Makhachev’s striking improvement has largely come down to the chances he creates for himself with kicks from his left side.
You can stab one through the middle to maintain range whenever you want, and also swing it towards the body and head.
He has become a real weapon to then open his hands and is likely to be his attack on the feet this Saturday night.
Volkanovski and his team will know what’s coming and will have planned accordingly, but limiting Makhachev’s effectiveness here could go a long way toward getting the battle over on their feet.
Makhachev’s left kick is a real weapon for him and his opponent should be aware of it.
avoid the fence
Makhachev’s wrestling is elite, but he’s not the type of fighter to launch into a double leg or traditional takedown.
The Dagestan prefers to get into close quarters and tie up their opponent before using a throw or trip to take them down.
This can be extremely effective in the fence and Volkanovski would do well to circle into the center of the Octagon where he can.
The height advantage could make it easier for Makhachev to pin Volkanovski to the cage and that’s also where the strength of being a natural lightweight could be revealing.
Makhachev is usually great when he has his opponent pinned against the fence.
Once Volkanovski finds himself downed or defending a submission, he’s going to have to summon the same kind of Houdini-esque escapes he did against Brian Ortega.
Twice against the incredible jiu-jitsu fighter, the Aussie twisted his way out of a hold that would have caused most fighters to tap out.
He may need to show similar levels of resolve and escapism on Saturday night with the Perth crowd behind him.