ALEX BRUMMER: Starmer blows hot air with his target for the economy 

Given Labour’s formidable lead in the polls, it’s hard not to take Keir Starmer’s mission to change Britain seriously.

Yet one cannot help but think that his promise to make the UK the fastest growing economy of the advanced G7 countries is nonsense.

Economic performance is not some kind of Premier League chart. Some Britons may wake up in the morning and consider whether Arsenal or Manchester City are at the top of the list.

They won’t care if production in the US or Japan is growing faster than in the UK.

There may be some Brexit enthusiasts who are happy to see that the outlook in the UK is better than that in France, for example. But this is not a meaningful match.

What voters want to understand is a better path to prosperity. That is something that Starmer has not put into words.

Instead, there were vague murmurs about accelerating to a green economy and drawing on the best ideas from the private and public sectors.

If Starmer is really serious about unleashing growth, he must recognize that promising to be business-friendly is not enough. Investments are only unleashed by favorable fiscal policies.

That means a reduction in the general tax rate so that AstraZeneca’s next production line is in Macclesfield, not Dublin.

Or offering generous tax breaks for R&D and skills training. Starmer could learn from Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which is already distorting global investment patterns through government subsidies and tax cuts aimed at bringing in green investments.

Tesla will reduce its advanced battery footprint in Germany and bring production back to the US.

Unless the current government, or any future Labor government, commits urgently to developing Rolls-Royce’s small modular reactors (SMRs) – a proven technology that would accelerate the UK’s decarbonisation – US and Japanese rivals could get an edge.

The term ‘missions’ was stolen from UCL economist Mariana Mazzucato. She believes governments and industry should rally behind goals like getting people on the moon to unleash the genius of an economy.

There are a number of such missions in the UK, ranging from supporting fintech to its fullest, supporting the creative sector and unleashing life sciences through less oppressive regulation.

Embracing such missions is how greater productivity, innovation and growth will be exposed. Vague promises to outperform Italy or Japan – both very different economic models – are muddled thoughts that Britain can ill afford.

War position

A year after the brutal war against Ukraine, the belief in the West that sanctions against Russia and the withdrawal of Western trade from Moscow would bring down Vladimir Putin’s regime has proven wrong.

Even if Unilever, HSBC, BP, BAT et al were willing and able to completely uproot themselves from the land, the impact would be minor. Moscow simply reoriented energy exports and trade to China and India. Production has shrunk by only 3 percent.

Ukraine and the rest of the world have taken a huge blow. More than 5 million people have fled Ukraine, production has plummeted by 30 percent and the cost of reconstruction is estimated at £292 billion by the World Bank and £625 billion by Kiev itself.

Elsewhere, the energy supply shock wiped out 4 percent of Europe’s total GDP and caused high inflation.

There will be big winners in the West in the end, aside from oil companies making huge profits. In Britain and across NATO, the prospects for established defense players – such as BAE Systems – have immediately improved.

As reassuring as it is, it comes at a terrible price for the prospects of future peace in Europe.

America first

Joe Biden has lost no time in naming the US candidate for the next president of the World Bank.

The Bank’s demands for the new job, including encouragement for female applicants, barely ran dry when Indian-born private equity and Mastercard magnate Ajay Banga was nominated.

Unless something gruesome is revealed in Banga’s background, it’s hard to see the US candidate shot.

The pre-emptive strike is embarrassing for other major shareholders, including the UK, who are unlikely to have a choice.

But no American candidate, including right-wing ideologue Paul Wolfowitz, has failed since the bank was founded in 1944.