There is growing despondency in Labor circles about the government’s performance, especially the poor performance of the Prime Minister.
To be fair, it is difficult to get too excited about the many things this government has achieved in its first term. The missteps and failures were obvious, starting with the ill-fated Voice referendum.
That was the moment when the shine immediately came off Anthony Albanese.
But there remains a clear path to victory for Labour, as long as the Prime Minister can find his mojo and his colleagues can stick to some fairly simple and easy key messages. Without sounding like they’re reciting political lines, of course.
Modern politicians are not good at sounding authentic at the best of times, but to win this government must deliver four central messages while recognizing that people are struggling. A difficult task, but possible.
Labor should point out that it has introduced new laws to protect workers’ wages, delivered two surpluses in its first two budgets, significantly reduced inflation without cutting the payments Australians depend on, and for fairer cuts to the income tax than the previous government had proposed.
In this column I have previously pointed out the shortcomings of some of the above points:
- Labor laws are stifling businesses at a time when the economy is struggling.
- The surpluses are merely a consequence of higher commodity prices and will end in next year’s budget anyway.
- Although inflation has fallen, it has fallen more slowly than elsewhere in the world, which is why our interest rates remain too high.
- And yes, the changes in the third phase of Scott Morrison’s tax cuts distribute the cuts more broadly – but Labor broke a clear election promise when it made the move, meaning it can no longer be relied on.
Anthony Albanese (back, arrived last month for Question Time at Parliament House) must focus on four key campaign messages if he has any chance of a second term as Prime Minister
Redbridge research predicts Peter Dutton is more likely to form a minority government than Albo
However, this nuanced criticism of Labour’s best sales pitch does not alter the fact that consistently repeating these four ‘achievements’ throughout a campaign is still the government’s best chance of securing a second term.
In fact, it might be Albo’s only chance. Because without making this simple case for re-election, his administration is straying into historical territory for the wrong reasons.
It could become the first first-term government to lose re-election since 1931. That’s how bad things look right now.
Labor MPs are finding it increasingly difficult not to whine about the state of affairs, especially Albo’s inability to turn the situation around.
For months it has been said in the Labor party room that they must be patient, because the building blocks for a comeback were in place.
The claims are beginning to ring hollow unless the Prime Minister and his team can get back to basics and stop being distracted by issues unrelated to mainstream Australia.
Israel for example.
Foreign Minister Penny Wong really needs to be sent on a very, very long and very, very distant trip abroad between now and the next election.
The Prime Minister and his team need to get back to basics and stop being distracted by issues unrelated to mainstream Australia, such as Israel. Foreign Minister Penny Wong in particular must do her part by avoiding making stupid public comments about the Jewish state
Her recent comments comparing the democratic state of Israel to totalitarian China and Russia were appalling at worst and incredibly stupid at best.
Look where Labor is now: a primary vote of just 27 percent is terrible, according to the Resolve poll.
Research from Redbridge predicts that a hung parliament is now a 98 percent certainty after the next election, going so far as to say that Peter Dutton is more likely to form a minority government than Albo.
So Labor needs to change its approach and simplify its messaging to the four points mentioned above. With the elections just months away, time is running out for the government.
Employees would appreciate labor laws protecting their wages if they were made aware of them. Selling protective wages shouldn’t be difficult.
Passing two surpluses is a sales pitch that can succeed after so many years of promises to achieve a surplus by both major parties, which never materialized.
Remember the Coalition’s ‘back in black’ campaign, ahead of a promised but unrealized surplus during Morrison’s last term?
Even if Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ surpluses were commodity-driven, they were still real and could easily be sold as evidence of sound economic management. Any advertising agency could amplify that performance.
Australians know that inflation is lower now than when Morrison lost in 2022, and they know that the tax cuts Labor has delivered are now ‘fair’ in a broader sense. They just need to be reminded of these facts by limiting political messages.
The Prime Minister and his senior colleagues need to repeat this sales pitch until they get tired of hearing it. Former NSW Premier Neville Wran used to say it was only then that voters finally started paying attention.
And they must remove the distractions, including Albo’s frequent missteps that project the image that he is out of touch and headed for retirement.
He wants the public to believe he has done a reasonable job so far, with plans to do even more good work if he gets a second term.
It’s not enough to just demonize Dutton. Not when he is neck-and-neck in the preferred prime minister rankings and the coalition is leading or even on the two-party ballot.
By selling policies such as reducing people’s HECS debts or pumping more tax money into childcare, those who are not so generous are left wondering what this government has done for them.
The four-point plan outlined above is suitable for most voters and gives them an excuse not to change the way they voted in the last election.
Let’s see if Labor has the campaign skills to pull it off.