Aidan O’Brien’s gamble to end hoodoo with City Of Troy gets lost in Californian dirt | Talking Horses

TThe most predictable line in the aftermath of Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Classic was the one in which Aidan O’Brien blamed himself for City Of Troy’s failure to find form – or, let’s be honest, to run any race – in the centerpiece of the meeting.

“He lost it at the start and I obviously didn’t prepare him to come out quick enough,” O’Brien said. “We thought so, but that wasn’t the case. He missed it and left Ryan [Moore] hopeless, actually.”

It was textbook O’Brien and, as is so often the case, overly self-critical. Needless to say, a late start didn’t help City Of Troy’s cause, but the pace in Saturday’s 14-rider race was ridiculously strong: 44.96 seconds for the first half mile, the fastest in the 41- year-long history of the Classic. It was set up for a close, and Sierra Leone, the eventual winner, entered the first corner half a length behind City Of Troy, before emerging about a length in front.

What happened next told the real story of City Of Troy’s race. With almost three-quarters of a mile to travel, Sierra Leone was at cruising speed and had effectively begun the run that would take him into the lead at the top of the stretch. He made steady and smooth ground to the rear, and left the City of Troy toiling in his wake.

City Of Troy could have been trapped like a greyhound, but the bottom line is that he simply didn’t act on the dirt. He didn’t like the kickbacks and couldn’t or wouldn’t achieve the high cruising speed that took him to a breakthrough success in the International Stakes in August.

O’Brien’s record with runners in the Classic on dirt is now 0-16, but since you learn more from failure than success, this latest setback will certainly be indicative of his next attempt to break his Classic hoodoo.

After all, we know that it is possible to win the Classic with a turf horse making its debut on the ground, because André Fabre did just that with Arcangues in 1993. But Arcangues was a five-year-old with 15 starts in the book when he won in Santa Anita. He had also only had two (unsuccessful) starts since May before heading to the US.

To maximize his chances of winning a Classic, O’Brien is likely to need a top-class four-year-old whose entire season is built around the Breeders’ Cup, perhaps including a previous run on the surface – and how much of that is he likely to get when Europe’s top racing takes place entirely on site and its owners’ business plan is built around three-year-old classic winners?

But past form suggests O’Brien and “the boys” in the Coolmore syndicate won’t stop trying if they think they have a chance. They could have run City Of Troy in the Turf, but instead they opted for the bigger, bolder prize. They gambled and lost, but most gamblers would tell them they were trying.