AI supercomputer predicts Premier League relegation fight as one club has 80 percent survival chance
As we approach the final day of what has been an exciting Premier League season, there is still plenty to play for as what sets up for a dramatic day at the bottom of the league.
The top of the leaderboard is now pretty much all confirmed, with Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Newcastle all secure a place in the top four, while Liverpool and Brighton will finish sixth and seventh respectively.
Jürgen Klopp’s side will now play in the Europa League for the first time since reaching the final of the tournament in the 2015/16 season, while Brighton’s 1-1 draw with Manchester City last weekend confirmed they would also play in the tournament for the first time in the club’s history.
The final European spot is still up for grabs, however, with Aston Villa (7th), Tottenham (8th) and Brentford (9th) all poised to secure a spot in the Europa Conference League depending on how the results play out on Sunday.
But it’s at the bottom of the table where things really heat up on Sunday with three giants of English football, Everton (17th), Leicester (18th) and Leeds (19th), all in danger of relegation.
A supercomputer has predicted that Leeds have a three percent chance of staying afloat this season
The AI has also said Leicester will be relegated this season, giving them an 82 per cent chance of going down
The software has also helped Everton stay afloat, giving the Toffees a 20 per cent chance of going down
Any club can survive the drop mathematically, should results go their way on Sunday.
But according to optLeeds have only a three per cent chance of staying afloat this season, while their AI supercomputer also gives Everton a 79.6 per cent chance of staying afloat, as the computer props Leicester to drop out of the top flight just two years after they won the FA Cup.
The battle on the bottom
Things could have looked very different heading into the final round of the Premier League had Leicester or Everton won last weekend.
The Foxes’ goalless draw against Newcastle could prove crucial in their hopes of staying afloat and snatching a point at St James’ Park, which has become a fortress for the Geordies in particular this season, will be a huge coup for Dean Smith’s side.
That will be a concern for the Toffees as Leicester can be confidently backed into their final game of the season against West Ham, who are now safe from relegation but have one eye on their Europa Conference League final against Sevilla imminent Wednesday.
But David Moyes’ side are no pushover, and given that Leicester have only recorded one win in their last 13 games, with Monday night’s draw against Newcastle being their first clean sheet in 22 Premier League games, the supercomputer says that there is an 82.8 per per cent chance of Leicester being relegated.
However, the outlook for Leeds is much bleaker, with the supercomputer suggesting the Yorkshire side have a 97 per cent chance of relegation, while Sam Allardyce’s side succumbed to a 3-1 defeat to West Ham at the weekend.
But there is still a chance they can turn things around as they face a disorderly Tottenham side on Sunday, who have taken just five points from their last six games.
According to Opta, the supercomputer has given Everton a 79 percent survival rate, while Leicester’s survival rate is 17 percent and Leeds’s three percent.
Sam Allardyce’s (right) team succumbed to a 3-1 defeat against West Ham last weekend and will play against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday
Everton defender Yerry Mina (right) saved a last gasp equalizer against Wolves at the weekend to keep their hopes alive of avoiding the drop. They play against Bournemouth at Goodison Park
Leicester drew against Newcastle last weekend and will face West Ham on Sunday
Everton are currently outside the relegation zone and will face Bournemouth on Sunday at Goodison Park.
Sean Dyche’s side have ominously lost all four of their last encounters against Bournemouth, conceding three or more goals in each game, but the Blues have only a 20 per cent chance of going down, according to Opta.
So what must each side do to stay afloat?
Permutations of the relegation battle
Everton currently the best chance of avoiding relegation.
The Toffees stay up when they:
- defeated Bournemouth;
- draw against Bournemouth and Leicester don’t win and Leeds don’t win by three goals; or
- losing to Bournemouth and neither Leicester nor Leeds winning.
Leicester are backed up to finish in 18th place, but they still have a chance to stay afloat.
For this they need:
- a West Ham win and an Everton defeat.
To lead have the least hope of survival.
To stay afloat, Sam Allardyce’s squad must:
- beat Tottenham and see both Everton and Leicester lose; or
- beat Tottenham by three or more goals, with Everton drawing and Leicester failing to win.
There is a chance that Leeds can still hold their own if Leicester win and Everton lose, with both currently tied on 31 points, but they will need to break a nine-goal deficit to stay ahead of Leicester on goal difference.
Qualification for the Europa Conference League
At the other end of the table, Aston Villa, Tottenham and Brentford all still have a chance to qualify for the Europa Conference League.
For Unai Emery’s side, a stay in Europe next season would perhaps be a just reward for his side’s excellent form this season.
After a slump at the start of the season, the Villanis found themselves in the relegation places after losing four games, but after replacing Steven Gerrard with Emery in October, the club has climbed their way up to seventh in the league .
They are currently in the fight for the final European spot, but could have pushed for a spot in the Europa League had they not lost to Manchester United and Wolves at the start of the month.
However, they face a tough game against Brighton on Sunday, while Tottenham, who are one point behind them in eighth, face relegation battlers Leeds.
Tottenham are still within the call to secure European football next season after dropping out of the top four
Thomas Frank’s side take on Man City this weekend and could beat Spurs and Villa to finish in seventh place
Unai Emery’s side could be rewarded with a Europa Conference League berth if they win at the weekend
It’s been a tough end to the season for Ryan Mason’s side, who have struggled since Antonio Conte left the club and fell out of the top four to eighth.
While European football is not to be lamented, it is a far cry from the expectations of the club’s fanbase, who saw their side crash out of the Champions League just months ago.
Brentford, meanwhile, could also secure European football, with Thomas Frank’s side flying high again this year, one better than last season’s 13th-place finish, and secure a spot in Europe with a win against Manchester City.
That will be a difficult question, but with City’s focus now on their next two cup finals, the Bees have a good chance.
Europa Conference League Permutations
To finish seventh, Aston Villa need:
- beat Brighton;
- draw to Brighton and see Tottenham and Brentford both lose; or
- losing to Brighton and seeing Tottenham and Brentford lose too.
Tottenham can finish seventh if:
- they beat Leeds and Aston Villa lose; or
- they draw with Leeds and Aston Villa and Brentford both lose.
Brentford can finish seventh and qualify for the Europa Conference League if:
- they win against Man City and Villa and Spurs both lose.