After two years of confidence and surety Ireland are backing themselves into a selection corner against Tonga… if Andy Farrell is genuinely worried about beating the Ikale Tahi he can forget about winning the World Cup

If Ireland are genuinely concerned about beating Tonga in the pool stages, they should put aside all thoughts of winning the World Cup.

Yet that is what the team selection for the battle against the South Sea Islanders suggests. This is a fantastic Irish side, led by an excellent management team who have overseen a hugely impressive run to France 2023 over the past two and a half years.

In that time, Andy Farrell and his backroom team have done almost everything right – from astute talent spotting with the likes of Hugo Keenan, Jamison Gibson-Park and Mack Hansen to a gradual shift towards all-court attacks and facing down short-sighted opposition to the Emerging Ireland tour.

Since the summer of 2021, there has been certainty and confidence in every aspect of the Irish operation, right down to this week’s selection.

By going fully loaded into their second pool match – having gone pretty close before the opening match against Romania – Ireland have already found themselves backed into a selection corner as, with South Africa, Scotland and the upcoming knockout stages, they will be looking go to go all the way with their strongest side.

Ireland will face a Tonga team looking to start their own World Cup campaign with a win

That would be the wrong way to go and it feels like Ireland are once again turning a blind eye to their torrid World Cup history.

There should be a ‘rip the script’ policy to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past, but this selection has created a distinct sense of deja vu since the last time Ireland played in a World Cup in France.

In 2007, Eddie O’Sullivan stubbornly stuck to his established, first-choice side throughout the tournament and it was a disaster: the frontliners never caught fire and the unwanted fringe players became disgruntled with their lack of involvement at a time when Ireland it cried out. for a change.

Having never been to a semi-final in 36 years, Ireland’s aim for this tournament should have been simple: reach the quarter-finals in the best possible form. That means rotation, finding the right balance between players who are sufficiently rested and have enough competitiveness to be at speed and in shape.

With this Tonga squad, the prospects of reaching the quarter-finals with fully fit players have been significantly reduced – regardless of the two-week break between the South Africa and Scotland matches.

Tonga deserve to be respected, but Ireland are the number one team in the world and should be more than capable of winning in this pool game as they rest their key players: Keenan, Garry Ringrose, Johnny Sexton, Andrew Porter, Tadhg Porter, James Ryan. , Caelan Doris and Josh van der Flier.

Those players are the non-negotiables needed for the quarter-final and playing their understudies against Tonga would have had the added benefit of putting the likes of Jimmy O’Brien, Ross Byrne, Finlay Bealham and the other back-ups in a better position. to step up when an injury inevitably spurs them into action later.

That opportunity has been lost and the reason for it is difficult to determine.

Ireland are ranked number 1 in the world and should be able to win while resting like Johnny Sexton (centre)

Is it because of what happened against Japan four years ago? Maybe, but Ireland was nowhere near the level this team is at in 2019.

Did the shaky performance against Samoa a few weeks ago scare the management? Maybe, but that was a warm-up match and we should never read too much into those empty things.

Has the intensity of the World Cup experience clouded the judgement?

We can’t say for sure from the outside, but World Cups do funny things to Irish teams – much more comfortable with relatively short international breaks than the two-month toil of these tournaments.

With regular media duties it feels like they have been in camp forever and there is still a month and a half to go if Ireland are to get to where they want to be.

That’s a lot of management meetings, meals and reflections in the hotel bar and in those circumstances the tendency is to start circling the wagons as the intensity increases.

Farrell and his coaches have earned the right to be trusted, but this selection feels like a mistake

Nerves can fray quickly in that confined environment and there seemed to be a clear edge in Thursday’s press conference as Mack Hansen’s sideshow played out.

Whatever the reasons behind this Tonga call-up, there is no doubt that Farrell and his fellow coaches have earned the right to be trusted.

But for those of us who are all too painfully aware of Ireland’s implosions at this tournament dating back to 1987, an ominous sense of familiarity is beginning to grow.

This team selection feels like a mistake.