According to analysts, the Nintendo Switch 2 will reach 4.3 million units sold in the US in its first year
- The Nintendo Switch 2 is expected to sell 4.3 million units in the US in its first year
- That’s according to Circana analyst Mat Piscatella
- Piscatella also expects the PS5 to outsell the Switch 2 in the US by 2025
It looks like the PS5 is still expected to outsell the Nintendo Switch 2 in 2025 in the US. At least according to a trusted analyst.
This comes from Mat Piscatella, executive director and games industry analyst at Circana. In one Bluesky PostPiscatella outlined his expectations for sales of the Nintendo Switch 2 if the console were to be released in the first half of the year.
“Since there seems to be an announcement coming soon (but who knows) – I have Nintendo’s next hardware device that will sell 4.3 million units in the US in 2025 (assuming a 1 hour launch),” he wrote, “accounting for approximately 1/3rd of all video game console hardware units sold in the year (excluding PC Portables).”
Supply and demand will likely play a role here as well, with Piscatella adding in a follow-up post that he expects hardware constraints to occur for several months after a significant early surge in demand. And units sold will of course depend on production capabilities and will.”
In the same thread, Piscatella notes that he still expects Sony’s PlayStation 5 to be the best-selling console in the US.
In terms of first year sales, 4.3 million seems like a pretty reasonable estimate when taking into account the performance of the original Nintendo Switch. In 2017, US sales of the Switch totaled approximately 4.88 million units Statistical. It also faced significant supply and demand issues at the time.
Additionally, it’s likely that the Nintendo Switch 2 won’t release as early in March as the original Switch. That said, given the plethora of leaks and rumors lately – including a possible Switch 2 mockup showing up at CES 2025 and an alleged leak of the console’s logo – it’s not absurd to think that an official announcement will be made.