WASHINGTON — Deputy Director Kamala Harris appears to have motivated Democrats in the early days of her candidacy, with warm feelings extending across multiple groups, including some key Democratic constituencies that have been particularly lukewarm on President Joe Biden, a new poll finds.
According to a Democratic Party survey, about 8 in 10 Democrats say they would be somewhat or very satisfied if Harris were the Democratic presidential nominee. The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Researchwhich was carried out after Biden withdrew from the race.
In a separate AP-NORC polltaken before Biden withdrew, but after his debate against Republican former president Donald TrumpOnly 4 in 10 Democrats said they were somewhat or very satisfied that he was the likely Democratic Party presidential nominee.
The rapidly changing views among Democrats in such a short period of time underscores how quickly the party – from ordinary voters Unpleasant elected officials – has united behind Harris as a standard-bearer, motivated by the new face at the top of the party and the new confidence in the party’s prospects against Trump in November.
Gary Hines, a Democrat from Philadelphia, said he wasn’t particularly impressed with Harris’ first presidential bid, but now she has shown “she can do the job, she can do the work, she’s proven she’s running a strong campaign so far and maybe on a larger level, she’s someone who can beat Donald Trump.” All of those factors have fueled an enthusiasm in Hines that wasn’t there when Biden was in the race, he said.
“I really want to get out there and maybe knock on doors, which I never would have done,” said Hines, 68. “It’s given me quite a boost.”
Americans are also more likely to say Harris would make a good president than they were earlier in July, a shift driven largely by Democrats. But they still see an uphill battle looming: A majority of U.S. adults, 56%, say that if Trump and Harris are their party’s nominees in the November general election, Trump is more likely to win.
Lauren Schulman, a Democrat from Pompano Beach, Florida, said she admires Biden and what he has accomplished during his presidency. But she said with him at the top of the ticket, “I was just so afraid that we were going to lose.”
Harris, on the other hand, “is a bright, shining star,” said Schulman, 66, noting that the vice president “is smart and younger, and she even comes across as younger than she is. That’s such a huge contrast to Trump.”
About 7 in 10 Black adults and about half of Hispanic adults say they would be satisfied with Harris as the Democratic nominee — a marked increase from earlier in July, when about half of Black adults and 15% of Hispanic adults said they were satisfied with Biden as the Democrats’ projected nominee. (The poll did not include enough Asian adults to analyze their responses separately.)
The percentage of young adults (under 45) who say they are satisfied with Harris as the nominee is around 4 in 10. That is higher than the 17% who said in July they were satisfied with Biden.
Bryan Seigler, a Democrat from Raleigh, North Carolina, praised Harris’ “broad appeal” and pointed out a contrast that Democrats have previously been unable to make.
“Donald Trump is the old man now,” said Seigler, 36.
The new poll shows Harris’ overall popularity has risen slightly, from 39% at the beginning of summer — before the debate — now at 46%. Democrats’ views of Harris have also become slightly more positive. Eight in 10 Democrats have a positive view of Harris, up slightly from about 7 in 10 in early June.
Haris would be a historic candidate — she would be the first woman to win the presidency, as well as the first black woman, the first South Asian American and the first Asian American. About 4 in 10 Americans say it would be good for the country to elect a woman or a person of color as president. Even more — about 6 in 10 when asked about electing a person of color and about half when asked about electing a woman — say it wouldn’t matter.
However, a majority of Democrats believe it would be good for the country to elect a woman or a person of color.
Most Americans, 54%, say they have heard or read a lot about Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. About three-quarters of Americans approve of his decision to withdraw as the Democratic presidential candidate, including most Democrats and Republicans.
For many Democrats, Biden’s Disastrous June 27 Debate showed that – even if they were largely satisfied with his performance while in office – the incumbent president should not run for a second term because concerns about his age affected his public performance or his ability to campaign effectively against Trump.
“When I watched the debate, you could just tell his cognitive ability was barely there,” said Julian Castañeda, a Democrat in Pocatello, Idaho. “He had trouble forming sentences and a lot of his answers, I couldn’t even understand what he was saying. At his age, it was appropriate for him to step aside.”
Biden’s choice to endorse Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee is slightly more divisive, with about half of American adults backing him, though Democrats overwhelmingly approve. There is a similar level of support for Biden’s decision to serve out the remainder of his presidential term.
Dropping out of the race hasn’t changed much in Americans’ overall opinion of Biden. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of the way Biden is doing his job as president. That number is roughly where it was the past two years. Biden’s approval ratings are similar to where they were before he dropped out of the race, with about 4 in 10 adults and about three-quarters of Democrats having a favorable opinion.
While Harris’ new campaign has reasons for optimism, the vice president faces an opponent better known to the country and known for his loyal base.
Most Americans see Trump as having an advantage heading into the November election. A majority of U.S. adults say that if Trump and Harris are the candidates, Trump is more likely to win. About 9 in 10 Republicans say Trump is more likely to become president, while only about 7 in 10 Democrats say that about Harris.
Schulman thinks Harris has a better chance of winning this fall. Still, she added: “Democrats, we’re a real, nervous, paranoid bunch these days.”
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The poll of 1,143 adults was conducted July 25-29, 2024, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
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Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.