Abortion rights questions are on ballots in 9 states. Will they tilt elections?

Ballot paper measures on abortion access could draw voters to the polls in November who might otherwise miss the election. And even a small number of additional voters could make the difference in neck-and-neck races for positions from state legislature to president.

Scholars and experts on ballot measures are divided on the impact that ballot measures have had on candidate elections in the past. But in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling in the 2022 case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organizationwhich ended the right to abortion nationwide, these measures are seen as measures that could influence the results, if they exist at all.

“2024 is a test in this post-Dobbs world of how this issue on the ballot is going to affect candidates,” said Chris Melody Fields Figueredo, executive director of The Ballot Initiative Strategy Center, which helps progressive groups with the details of pursuing and campaigning for ballot measures. “It really depends on whether candidates are willing to run on those issues.”

Voters in nine states are considering measures to add abortion rights to their state constitutions, in the highest profile of many voting measures.

One, Nebraska, also has a competing measure that would enshrine the current law, which bans most abortions after the first 12 weeks of pregnancy. New York also has an equal rights measure that would ban discrimination based on pregnancy outcomes, though it does not mention abortion by name.

If there are any ballot measures that have a major impact on candidates’ elections, it is likely to be those on abortion. But they are not the only ones on the ballot. There are more than 140 questions is being asked in 41 states, including on marijuana legalization, immigration, election procedures, sports betting and the minimum wage.

Since 2022, the position of pro-abortion rights has prevailed in all countries seven national ballot measures regarding abortionalso in conservative Kansas and Kentucky.

Dave Campbell, a political science professor at Notre Dame, said there could be some parallels this year to the 2004 election. That November, 11 states passed bans on gay marriage, and President George W. Bush, who opposed gay marriage, was re-elected in a close race. Republicans won seats in both houses of Congress.

Scholars differ on whether the ballot measures — later superseded by a Supreme Court decision to legalize same-sex unions nationwide — were an important factor for Bush.

Research has shown that overall voter turnout did not appear to be higher in states where the measures were on the ballot. But Campbell and a co-author found that more white Protestant evangelicals did vote in those states, and that those additional voters heavily supported Bush — including in Ohio, where his narrow victory was key to keeping him in office.

Vice President Kamala Harris, who last week launched a nationwide bus tour to promote reproductive freedom, could receive a similar boost in her campaign against former President Donald Trump, Campbell said.

Trump nominated the Supreme Court members who were instrumental in overturning Roe, calling it “a beautiful thing to watch” as states imposed their own restrictions. He has also said he would not support a nationwide ban. His running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, said Trump would veto such legislation if it were to land on his desk.

Last week, Trump reiterated that the Florida law bans abortion after the first six weeks of pregnancy is too restrictive, but said he would vote against a voting motion that would make abortion legal until the fetus is viable.

A significant number of Republican voters support abortion rights, but most of the party’s candidates now oppose abortion.

“It’s pretty tough to vote for an abortion rights initiative and then vote for a Republican candidate,” Campbell said.

Kelly Hall, director of The Fairness Project, a nonpartisan group that supports progressive congressional elections, says that congressional elections often get more votes than any other candidate.

But she said that until the abortion measures of the past two years, there was little evidence that ballot questions would attract large numbers of voters who otherwise might not vote at all.

“For the candidates who hope to make the election more about abortion than other issues, there is a huge advantage in sharing a ballot with one of these reproductive rights measures,” she said.

If ballot measures are going to stoke voter enthusiasm and influence the outcomes of candidate races, they’re probably already doing so in close races.

In a race in Montana that could be crucial to whether Democrats retain control of the U.S. Senate, incumbent Sen. Jon Tester, a Democrat who supports abortion rights, is in a neck-and-neck race with Republican Tim Sheehy, who has criticized the proposal.

Tester’s campaign recently released three new ads promoting abortion rights.

In New York, a judge refused last month to demand that the word “abortion” appear on the ballot. Democrats pushed for it to be included in a state where congressional elections could be close.

Measures are also on the agenda in Nevada and Arizona, states where power over state government is divided between the parties.

Arizona state Sen. Eva Burch, a Democrat from Mesa, said abortion was a key to her victory in the competitive district two years ago and could be again this year.

Burch announced in a speech on the legislative floor earlier this year that she would have an abortion because her pregnancy was no longer viable. Her speech came just before the The Arizona Supreme Court has ruled that a Civil War-era abortion ban could apply. The legislature the law was withdrawn before the performance could begin.

“One of the reasons it remains an important part of the conversation is because there is so much uncertainty about abortion care in Arizona right now and people just don’t really know where we stand,” Burch said.

The campaign team of her Republican opponent, Robert Scantlebury, declined to discuss the vote with The Associated Press.

Arizona is also home to one of the most competitive congressional districts in the country, an area along the U.S.-Mexico border where first-term Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani is in a rematch with Democrat Kirsten Engel.

In a debate last week, Ciscomani, who emigrated from Mexico as a child, said that immigration is the most important issue. This too is the subject of a initiative for a national vote.

He did not respond to AP’s request for an interview.

Engel helped gather signatures to get the abortion question on the ballot. “So many voters practically grabbed those clipboards out of our hands to sign the initiative,” she said.

While polls show support for legal access to abortion, the issue also mobilizes some anti-abortion voters.

Danise Rees, a 23-year-old senior at Arizona State University and vice president of the school’s chapter of Students of Life, said she switched from Republican to independent after the Dobbs ruling because she was angry that some Republicans had softened their positions. Still, she said she plans to vote for Trump this fall because he is more sympathetic to the anti-abortion movement.

“If the Democrats decided tomorrow that they were completely pro-life, even more so than the Republican candidates,” she said, “I would vote Democratic.”

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Associated Press reporter Sejal Govindarao and AP/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative member Gabriel Sandoval contributed from Phoenix. Report for America is a nonprofit national service program that places journalists in local newsrooms to report on under-reported issues.