Aboriginal Voice to Parliament support ‘steady’ despite poll showing No campaign winning

A second poll released on Tuesday showed that support for the Indigenous vote in parliament is still ‘steady’ – entering a nine poll that found it ‘no’ is now imminent.

A poll of 1,606 voters, published by Nine newspapers late Monday, is the first major poll to show that the ‘no’ side is now in the lead.

The Resolve Strategic survey found that the percentage of people who nationally approve of enshrining the vote in the constitution has fallen to 49 percent, down from 53 percent in May.

However, Resolve’s findings were contradicted by a Guardian Essential left-wing poll released on Tuesday.

The Essential survey of 1,123 voters found that 60 percent of people supported the vote — one percentage point higher than the previous survey.

It also showed that 40 percent of respondents opposed the change compared to the Resolve survey’s findings of 51 percent.

The Resolve poll said those who supported the ‘No’ campaign were in the majority in three states, Queensland, Western Australia and South Australia.

While 42 percent were firmly in favor and 40 percent against, it turned out that 18 percent of voters had not yet made a decision.

But when the doubters were asked to answer only “yes” or “no,” as they would in a referendum, the “no” vote had a slight edge.

The national ‘yes’ rate has fallen steadily from a peak of 64 percent support in a September 2022 Resolve poll.

Resolve director Jim Reed said the ‘no’ voters reported being more involved in their choice than their counterparts.

“This tells us that the people who moved to No are sticking with that choice, while the remaining Yes voters are hesitant,” he said.

Mr Reed said that while almost all voters have now heard of the Voice referendum, only 30 per cent of them said they could confidently explain it to someone else.

“This suggests that the more people hear about the vote, the more they vote no, and not understanding the details is probably part of that.”

He added that uncertainty about the scope of the vote meant states moved to the “no” side, meaning the referendum would fail by failing to get the required majority of votes in a majority of states.

The poll numbers come as the Yes 23 campaign hails the support of more than 500 organizations, from charities to business, religious and multicultural groups, who support a ‘yes’ vote.

Yes 23 campaign manager Dean Parkin said voters continued to call and hold events to encourage people to support the constitutional amendment.

“This is about bringing all Australians together,” Mr Parkin said.

“We are building a positive movement that includes people from all walks of life.”

A referendum requires more than 50 percent support in at least four of the six states to pass.

The referendum is expected to be held between October and December — pending laws passed by parliament in June — with the federal budget allocating $360 million to fund the poll.

Critics have argued that the role is not sufficiently limited or defined as all laws affect some Aboriginal people in the same way as people of other races.

Indigenous Australians leading the ‘No’ campaign revealed they will vote against the referendum because it is ‘divisive, dangerous, expensive and not fair’.

The group, called Fair Australia and led by Coalition Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price, has long argued that the proposal ignores everyday Aboriginal Australians.

“It is not right to divide ourselves along the lines of race, especially within our Australian founding document,” Ms Price writes on Fair Australia’s website.

Not all Indigenous Australians want the vote. Not only that, for the first time in our country’s history, your constitution would divide Australians by race’

Aboriginal Australians don’t need a taxpayer-funded lobby group at the heart of our constitution.

“There are already too many culture warriors in this country… They’ve come for Australia Day and they’re coming for more. The Voice means they have a constitutional right to do so. It’s time we say enough.’

The Voice would advise the cabinet and executive government on legislation, particularly proposed laws affecting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders.

Unlike the old Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Commission – formally abolished in 2005 with bipartisan support – the vote would be enshrined in the constitution.

While parliament would determine the composition of the vote, it would not have the power to abolish it without taking the issue to another referendum.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said people who oppose the Voice are entitled to their opinion, but believes the Voice will make Australia an “even greater” nation.

Speaking at the Lowitja O’Donoghue speech on May 29, Mr Albanese said a successful referendum, treaty and truth-telling would be part of the country’s next phase of reconciliation with the indigenous people.

“One of the things a Voice to Parliament will be able to do is talk about the need for agreements and coming together after a conflict, and part of that is telling the truth about our history,” Albanese said.

‘[The referendum] will help governments make better decisions and achieve better outcomes…Governments have spent decades trying to impose solutions from Canberra rather than consult with communities.”