We look at the meaning of the statement and whether it could change North Korea’s direction.
If North Korea uses its nuclear weapons against the United States or its ally South Korea, it would be “the end” of Kim Jong-un’s regime, Seoul and Washington announced this week.
The grave threat comes as South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol makes a six-day state visit to the US, where he and his counterpart Joe Biden discussed how to step up the US security shield for South Korea in the face of the nuclear-armed North. increased missile tests.
But how important is the tough-sounding statement? Here’s what we know.
What is the Washington Declaration and what does it do?
- It is a series of new steps that encourage US-South Korea military cooperation and intelligence sharing.
- The statement includes the creation of a “Nuclear Consultative Group” to give South Korea additional insight into U.S. planning for major contingencies and “a voice in those deliberations.”
- It also includes the regular deployment of a US nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) to South Korea – something not seen since the 1980s – and other measures, including increased information sharing in the event of a North Korean attack.
- But there are no plans to station US nuclear weapons in South Korea, and some analysts question the practical value of the statement.
Is it significant?
- The state visit undoubtedly represents “a new high point for U.S.-South Korea relations, fully demonstrating the breadth and depth of security, economic and cultural cooperation,” Leif-Eric Easley, a professor at Ewha University in Seoul, said. told AFP.
- Yoon has tried to reassure an increasingly nervous public in the South about the US’s commitment to so-called “extended deterrence”, in which US resources – including nuclear weapons – serve to prevent attacks against allies.
- A big problem is not the deal, but the US political landscape, meaning the deal could be worthless after the 2024 presidential election there, Karl Friedhoff of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs told AFP.
- Former US President Donald Trump’s possible return to power is likely to spark “very serious discussions” in Seoul, he said.
- For the U.S.-South Korea relationship, “the biggest challenge is something the alliance doesn’t really have control over: U.S. domestic politics,” Friedhoff said.
Why is South Korea concerned?
- The US “extended deterrence” protection for South Korea rests on a simple assumption: that the US would retaliate if North Korea used nuclear weapons against South Korea.
- Years after Pyongyang first tested a nuclear bomb in 2006, this was a credible threat. North Korea had relatively few bombs and limited ability to send them far beyond its borders.
- But North Korea’s arsenal has grown and it now has intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of reaching US cities, potentially driving South Korea’s defense costs much higher.
- Skeptical that the US would risk its own cities to defend its ally, a majority of South Koreans now believe the country should develop its own nuclear weapons, recent surveys show.
- “A nuclear strike by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of any regime that would take such action,” Biden said as he stood next to Yoon at the White House.
Will Seoul Get Nuclear Weapons?
- According to the agreement, South Korea reaffirmed its commitment to “its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as the cornerstone of the global non-proliferation regime”.
- “One thing was clear: there was an implicit agreement that Seoul would not go nuclear,” Soo Kim, policy practice leader at LMI Consulting and a former CIA analyst, told AFP. “Seoul’s nuclear ambitions are capped.”
- Gi-Wook Shin, a Korea expert and professor of sociology at Stanford University, told AFP the statement was “a step forward”.
- “I don’t think this will be enough to satisfy a South Korean audience that is increasingly demanding that Seoul develop nuclear weapons of its own,” Shin said.
What will North Korea do?
- Closer cooperation between its self-proclaimed nemesis, Washington and Seoul, is sure to worry Kim Jong-un’s regime and there could be more missile launches to demonstrate this, experts say.
- Publicly, “North Korea will downplay the reassuring message from the US regarding nuclear deterrence,” Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean military general, told AFP.
- But behind closed doors “they will get the message: if they use nuclear weapons, it means the end of the regime,” he said.
- North Korea is still unlikely to change its position, experts say.
- “North Korea is unlikely to give up its nuclear weapons by giving in to these threats,” Yang Moo-jin, president of the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul, told AFP.