A near-total ban on abortion has supercharged the political dynamics of Arizona, a key swing state
PHOENIX — Arizona was already expected to be one of the most contested states in the US presidential elections in November. But a ruling this week imposing a near-total ban on abortion strengthened the state’s role, making it perhaps the country’s most critical battleground.
This Sunbelt state with a fiercely independent streak has long been at the forefront of the country’s immigration debate because of its 370-mile border with Mexico and large Hispanic and immigrant populations. It is now taking center stage in the national debate over reproductive rights after the U.S. Supreme Court ended a federally guaranteed right to abortion.
Abortion and immigration are two of the biggest political issues this year. No battleground state has been more directly affected by both than Arizona.
“Don’t underestimate this,” Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who is voting for President Joe Biden’s re-election campaign, said of the Arizona abortion ruling. “It’s dynamically changing.”
Biden and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump are expected to fight hard to win Arizona after Biden won the state by fewer than 11,000 votes four years ago.
In addition to the presidency, the U.S. Senate majority could be determined by the high-profile battle between Republican Kari Lake and Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego is in the race to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
The state Supreme Court ruling reviving an 1864 ban on abortion also added rocket fuel to Democrats’ push to add a question to the November ballot asking voters to to approve a constitutional amendment that protects the right to abortion until the fetus is viable outside of prison. uterus. Subsequent abortions would be allowed to save the woman’s life or protect her physical or mental health.
Trump campaign adviser Chris LaCivita, who is also chief of staff of the Republican National Committee, described Arizona as “an important part of the strategy.”
He declined to discuss details of the strategy, but disagreed that the abortion ruling fundamentally changed Arizona’s dynamics.
“Is abortion an issue the campaign is dealing with in the battleground states – and more specifically in Arizona? Absolute. We feel like we’re doing that and we’re going above and beyond what we need to do,” LaCivita said, even as he suggested other issues would be more important to most Arizona voters this fall.
“The election will be determined in large part by the most important issues that the vast majority of Arizonans face every day, and that is, ‘Can I afford to put food on the table and feed my family? to feed and get? in the car to go to work? ” he said.
Democrats are quick to note that since the reversal of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, they have won virtually every major election in which abortion was on the ballot.
The Biden campaign launched a statewide abortion-related advertising campaign on Thursday that it said would reach seven figures, although ad tracking companies had yet to confirm the new investment. The new ads come on top of a $30 million nationwide advertising blitz that was already underway, according to Biden campaign spokesman Kevin Munoz.
In the new ad, Biden directly links Arizona’s abortion restrictions to Trump.
“Your body and your decisions are yours, not the government’s, not Donald Trump’s,” Biden said. “I will fight like hell to get your freedom back.”
In addition to the ad campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris will appear in Arizona on Friday to highlight Democrats’ commitment to preserving abortion rights.
Even without this week’s abortion ruling, Democrats would have already bet heavily on Arizona this fall.
Biden’s team is on track to spend more than $22 million on ads in Arizona between April 1 and Election Day, according to data collected by the ad tracking company AdImpact. That’s millions more than other swing states like Wisconsin, Georgia and Nevada. Only Pennsylvania and Michigan are seeing more Democratic advertising dollars.
Trump’s team, meanwhile, is not spending on ads in Arizona this month and has not yet reserved any general election ads in the state, according to AdImpact.
Still, Trump remains optimistic about the state, which had backed a Republican presidential candidate in every election since 1996 before narrowly backing Biden in 2020. They point to a modest shift among Hispanic voters, a core group in the Democratic coalition, who may be more open to Trump.
Meanwhile, Arizona Republicans remain bogged down by infighting in a state where the party apparatus built and nurtured by the late Sen. John McCain has been usurped by Trump’s “Make America Great Again” loyalists.
The divisions came to a head during the 2022 primary for governor, when Trump and his allies enthusiastically rallied behind Kari Lake, while traditional conservatives and the business community backed her rival.
Lake won the primaries. Instead of mending fences with the vanquished establishment, she gloated that she had “driven a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.” Since then, she has made a more concerted effort behind the scenes to win over her GOP critics, with mixed results.
Lake, a major MAGA figure sometimes discussed as a potential running mate for Trump, is now entering the state’s high-profile Senate race.
Like Trump, she has spoken out against the latest abortion ruling, saying it is too restrictive. But two years ago, Lake called the abortion ban “a great bill,” said she was “incredibly happy” it was on the books and predicted it would “set the course that other states should follow.”
The ruling played directly into the hands of Gallego, her Democratic rival, who had already put abortion rights at the center of his speech to Arizona voters.
“I think we were on track to win this,” he said in an interview. “I think it brings people’s attention to abortion rights who may not have considered this the most important thing or one of the most important issues.”
Meanwhile, Biden’s pollster, Anzalone, warned his party against overconfidence.
“It won’t be easy. These are all close races. I’m not ahead of the curve by any means,” he said of this fall’s battle for Arizona. “But we like the advantage we have there.”