The release of two American citizens by Hamas on Friday seemed like a rare positive moment in this spiraling crisis.
According to Hamas, Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie were released for “humanitarian reasons”, raising hopes that more of the 200 people abducted during their raid on southern Israel two weeks ago would follow suit.
But it could still prove to be a false dawn.
Look beneath the surface of this supposed humanitarian gesture and I suspect you’ll discover that a cash payout is one of Hamas’s main motivations.
How could the terror group not have had one eye on the almost £5 billion deal struck by the Biden administration in September to buy the freedom of five US and Iranian nationals held in Tehran for years?
The release of two American citizens by Hamas on Friday seemed like a rare positive moment in this spiraling crisis
According to Hamas, Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie were released for “humanitarian reasons”, raising hopes that more of the 200 people abducted during their raid on southern Israel two weeks ago would follow suit.
Every hostage released fills Hamas coffers, although there is no suggestion yet that Washington has paid for the release of Judith and Natalie Raanan.
Even if the Americans have not paid, Hamas has a political incentive to allow Western hostages to dribble out in this way.
As long as the US and its allies believe that their nationals can be released unharmed, they will continue to pressure Israel not to send ground troops to Gaza. The longer Israel hesitates, the more Hamas will hope it can delay or stop an invasion altogether.
But how did America’s “fascist government” – as a Hamas spokesman called their interlocutors after the hostages’ release – open a back channel of communication with the terrorist group?
The main facilitator of the negotiations is Qatar. The eyes of the world were on the energy-rich emirate last autumn when it hosted the World Cup and spent £180 billion building spectacular stadiums in the desert. But it is now attracting attention for very different reasons. It was Qatar that intervened to discuss the US-Iran hostage agreement; and Qatar appears to be the deal broker once again.
The country is home to both a US military base and Hamas leaders. It is impossible to exaggerate how bizarre this situation is.
Imagine if, after September 11, Osama bin Laden had lived in a country with a strong American military presence and a vital energy supplier to Europe, instead of in the pariah of Afghanistan.
By acting as a peacemaker, Qatar sidesteps difficult questions surrounding the harboring of Hamas and the effective subsidization of the terrorist regime in Gaza.
This labyrinthine situation is further complicated by Iran, Qatar’s big brother on the other side of the Gulf.
The two countries share a highly lucrative gas field and a mutual distrust of Saudi Arabia. Tehran’s interest in the hostage negotiations is that its ally, Hamas, is destabilizing the region and hampering the closer ties between Riyadh and Tel Aviv that occurred just two weeks ago.
But the West unfortunately has little choice in using Qatar as a middleman, regardless of its tenuous loyalties.
It was telling that at yesterday’s Cairo Summit For Peace conference, with Middle Eastern leaders and European foreign ministers present, including our own James Cleverly, the Americans sent only an acting ambassador.
Washington knows it cannot rely on its traditional allies in the Gulf, such as Saudi Arabia, to exert influence on Hamas, as Riyadh is no more a friend of the terror group than Tel Aviv.
Israel’s neighbors Egypt and Jordan would rather not be involved. Egypt wants to bring in humanitarian aid, but neither country is prepared to accommodate a wave of Palestinian refugees that could upend their societies.
No, Joe Biden’s dealmakers are operating behind the scenes elsewhere – undoubtedly in Qatar – and don’t want even his allies to join the high-stakes battle.
Relying on this small oil state and its nefarious allies to quickly resolve the hostage crisis is far from ideal.
What price the West will have to pay in exchange for these two hundred lives remains to be seen.