Google CEO expects AI development to slow by 2025 – but don’t start celebrating the end of the AI craze
- Sundar Pichai predicts a slow year for AI in 2025
- It says we need ‘deeper breakthroughs’ to reach the next phase
- Many agree, but OpenAI’s CEO has publicly suggested that AI development will not slow down
Artificial intelligence will reign supreme in 2024, with virtually every major tech brand announcing AI tools and upgrades for our phones, laptops, TVs, smartwatches, and pretty much everything else through partnerships with ChatGPT or one of the top ChatGPT alternatives. It seemed like 2025 would continue this trend, but Google CEO Sundar Pichai instead believes we’ll see AI developments slow down now that the “low-hanging fruit is gone.”
Speaking at the The New York Times DealBook SummitPichai said: “I think progress will become more difficult,” adding: “You will definitely need deeper breakthroughs as we reach the next phase.”
According to Pichai, the explosion of new features and rapid developments we have seen will slow down in 2025 as we reach the current limit of AI systems – a limit that will only be exceeded by heavy investments and developments that will take time. fruit. Until we reach the next big breakthrough, Pichai argues that we will see more incremental improvements that can improve the technology, but not necessarily redefine what AI systems can do, as we have seen over the past twelve months.
And he is certainly not the only one with this sentiment. A few months ago, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella compared the development of AI to the industrial revolution, saying it takes time for growth to explode (via CNBC), journalist The latest newsletter from Edward Zitron post goes into a fantastic long deep dive into the issues facing AI development, and our in-house expert Senior Editor Graham Barlow said of Pichai’s comments: “I think he’s right.”
However, Pichai’s sentiment is not shared by every AI-focused company – at least not publicly. In November, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman posted “There is no wall,” suggesting that he believes progress in AI will continue at a breakneck pace. His post was in response to criticism that the most recent ChatGPT update was only slightly better than the model that preceded it.
However, behind closed doors there are messages (via Bloombergbehind a paywall) that OpenAI, as well as Google and Anthropic, are having a hard time advancing their AI systems and struggling to reach internal milestones.
Don’t expect AI to go away
Given the nature of breakthroughs, it can be difficult to predict when the next one will occur. Massive progress could be discovered in five months, or it could take five years as different avenues are explored. However, given the potential of AI systems, it is unlikely that the hype and excitement around AI will disappear completely anytime soon, even if there are few notable developments for now.
That’s not to say the excitement won’t wane. As AI from Google, OpenAI, Microsoft, Apple and the rest close in and homogenize our existing wall, we will likely see the focus shift to another technology for a while, as we always have.
Just look at XR technology. Google Glass made a splash in the mid-2010s, followed by the first truly impressive consumer VR headsets from Oculus and HTC. After that, things relaxed in terms of public perception until we got the Oculus Quest 2 and Meta’s huge Metaverse announcement, which sparked a new wave of interest in the industry buzzword before things returned to normal. As we approach 2025, that excitement could return as Google and Samsung gear up to showcase some sort of glasses or headset at the Samsung Galaxy S25 launch event in January.
AI is merely following this long-standing trend cycle in the tech industry, and while AI is about to enter its ebb era, it will eventually flow back. So enjoy the quieter AI updates in 2025 while you can, because even as it fades into the background, the excitement about artificial intelligence will return.