Why forecasters can’t predict Hurricane Rafael’s path

A Category 3 hurricane made landfall in Cuba on Wednesday, becoming the 17th storm of the season, but its path has confused forecasters.

Although Rafael is expected to remain in the Gulf and move westward for at least the next few days, meteorologists have mixed data pointing to a further direction.

A significant shift in the storm’s forecast track reduces the threat to the U.S. and increases the chance the storm will move toward Mexico’s Gulf Coast — but a likely path is still unclear.

The National Hurricane Center said there is “above average uncertainty about Rafael’s future track,” KRLD reported.

“Most models show Rafael turning southwest in response to a narrow ridge to the northwest,” the agency said. “But the Global Forecast System and Canadian models still suggest a northward turn ahead of a slightly deeper upper trough over the central United States.”

However, AccuWeather meteorologists said it is still “too early to say anything about tropical impacts along the Gulf Coast.”

Hurricane Rafael left ten million people in the dark as the storm raged across the island, bringing heavy rain and strong winds that reached speeds of 105 miles per hour and knocked out the entire country’s power grid.

The storm moved out of Cuba on Thursday and entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving damaged homes, uprooted trees and downed telephone poles in its wake.

When Rafael first formed, it looked like it might head straight to the US, with the initial forecast including the Florida Keys.

Heavy rain was expected to spread northward into Florida and nearby areas of the southeastern U.S. during the mid to late part of the week.

A few tornadoes were also expected over the Keys and southwest Florida on Wednesday.

But so far it appears that Rafael will remain confined to the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, while easing in intensity somewhat, rather than approaching the US Gulf Coast – making the threat of a US landfall nil , according to KRLD. reported.

Homes in western Cuba were destroyed after Hurricane Rafael, a Category 3 storm, made landfall in the country on Wednesday.

Heavy rain hit Cuba, as well as winds of up to 170 km/h, paralyzing the entire country’s electricity grid

Rafael withdrew from Cuba on Thursday and entered the Gulf of Mexico as a Category 2 hurricane, leaving behind damaged homes, uprooted trees and downed telephone poles

Although no coast guards or warnings are in effect, the National Hurricane Center says the swell generated by Rafael is expected to spread across the Gulf of Mexico, likely creating life-threatening surf and current conditions.

Rafael rapidly intensified before hitting Cuba late Wednesday afternoon, making it the ninth storm to rapidly intensify in the Atlantic basin alone this year, CNN reported.

The storm first delivered a devastating blow as a Category 3 hurricane – the first to hit Cuba since Ian in 2022 and the second to hit the country in the past two weeks, killing at least seven people.

Forecasters warned the hurricane could bring “life-threatening” storm surges, gusty winds and flash flooding to western parts of the island after knocking out power and dumping rain on the Cayman Islands and Jamaica just a day before hitting Cuba.

Earlier on Wednesday, the Cuban government issued a warning of the coming storm as crews in Havana worked to strengthen buildings and clear debris from coastal areas in anticipation of flooding.

Classes and public transport were suspended on parts of the island and flights to and from Havana and Varadero were cancelled.

The National Hurricane Center said there is ‘above average uncertainty in Rafael’s future track’

Thousands of people in the western parts of the island were evacuated.

“This is a night I don’t want to sleep through, between the pounding air and the trees,” said Silvia Pérez, a 72-year-old retiree who lives in the coastal area of ​​Havana, as she prepared to flee.

‘I’m scared for my friends and family.’

The Ministry of Energy and Mines said Thursday it was making progress in restoring power to residents of eastern and central Cuba, but warned it would take longer in the western part of the island where the Rafael was hardest hit. Aljazeera reported.

The capital Havana, home to two million people, was still without power late Thursday.

But forecasters now don’t know where Hurricane Rafael is headed

Schools and businesses are closed and transportation services are only beginning to resume.

Jose Ignacio Dimas, a security guard living in Havana, returned home to discover that his apartment building, located in the city’s historic center, had collapsed, Aljazeera reported.

“The whole front wall of the building fell,” he said.

But like many buildings in the capital, it was outdated and lacked regular maintenance.

When Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening, it became the fifth hurricane to hit the Gulf in November since 1966, CNN reported.