Hurricane Rafael is about to hit the US – here’s its expected path

A rare November hurricane is barreling towards the US and could hit as soon as this weekend.

Storm Rafael was upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane today and could make landfall anywhere from the Texas coast to the Florida Panhandle.

The storm is expected to hit the west Cuba and the Isle of Youth within the next 12 hours.

From there, experts predict Rafael will reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Florida Keys, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) issuing a warning to residents.

Americans have been advised to secure loose items outdoors due to high winds and flooding.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said small changes in Rafael’s strength and the winds around it could make a big difference in where it goes next.

The storm may gain some strength, or if the wind pushing it changes direction, its path may change.

A spaghetti model – so named because the lines resemble strands of pasta – revealed that Rafael has four possible routes to the US, but has the best chance of making landfall in Louisiana.

However, the NHC has issued a tropical storm warning for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today as Rafael could bring up to three inches of rain and increase the risk of tornadoes as it passes by the Sunshine State.

‘Rain showers with gusty winds will affect this area until Wednesday night. Also in the Keys and in the extreme southwest of Florida, some tornadoes cannot be ruled out.’ The Weather Channel reported.

The NHC stated that it is too early to determine when and how Rafael will impact the US Gulf Coast, but residents should continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

At 10 a.m. ET, Rafael was about 130 miles (210 kilometers) south-southeast of Havana and moving northwest at 14 mph (23 km/h), with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph (180 km/h), according to the NHC.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the region and locals should brace for “damaging hurricane force winds, life-threatening storm surges and destructive waves,” the advisory said.

The storm will also drop heavy rainfall over parts of the western Caribbean until early Thursday, the NHC said, including Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

Once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, Rafael is expected to weaken as the environment becomes less and less conducive for the hurricane to maintain its intensity, the NHC said.

“It is also possible that Rafael will be torn apart by strong winds high in the atmosphere and disappear into the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall,” Deger said.

An alternate route forecast has Rafael tracking west across the Gulf instead of north toward the US. If that happens, the impact on the US would be minimal, AccuWeather said.

If Rafael weakens, but remains intact, and moves toward the northern Gulf Coast, it could increase rainfall along a cold front this weekend and into early next week, The Weather Channel reported.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

While the tropical storm is not expected to directly hit Florida, it could put additional strain on local communities still reeling from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which ravaged the state within two weeks of each other.

These storms caused widespread damage across the Sunshine State, killing an estimated 54 people in total.

According to the Office of Insurance Regulation, estimated insurance claims resulting from both Helene and Milton in Florida are more than $4 billion.

As Rafael travels toward the U.S., Florida residents should regularly monitor weather forecast updates, the NHC advised.

It is very rare for hurricanes to hit the US in November.

That’s because this is the last month of the Atlantic hurricane season and favorable conditions for tropical storm formation have diminished.

In total, 287 hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S. since records began in 1851, with only four hitting in November, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) database.

The most recent Hurricane Nicole hit Florida in November 2022. Before that, the US had not seen a hurricane since Katie in 1985.

Rafael is the strongest hurricane to pass through the northwestern Caribbean in November since 2009, according to NOAA.

As the storm approaches Cuba, experts say it is possible the hurricane could strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane before making landfall.

Nine storms – including Rafael – have rapidly intensified in the Atlantic basin this year, fueled by unprecedentedly high ocean temperatures.

According to NOAA, rapid storm intensification is becoming more common as the atmosphere and oceans warm due to climate change.