Top pollster Nate Silver unveils his latest prediction for the 2024 presidential election
Nate Silver has revealed his latest prediction ahead of the presidential election, suggesting the outcome will practically be a coin flip.
The polling guru gave former President Donald Trump a 51.5 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Vice President Kamala Harris walked away with a 48.1 percent chance of victory.
Silver, who left Five Thirty Eight in 2023 and took his prediction model with him, made his latest prediction on his Substack blog called the Silver Bulletin.
He has Trump as a slight favorite, despite Harris having just less than a percentage point lead in his collection of public opinion polls.
“NYT polls in the state are good for Harris, but not great. Morning Consult is fluctuating in the state polls, good for Trump, but not great,” Silver said wrote on X Sunday morning. ‘It’s a total toss-up.’
Nate Silver believes the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is ‘a pure toss-up’ based on the latest polls before Election Day
Silver first referred to The New York Times’ latest poll, which showed Trump trailing Harris in four critical swing states: Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin.
That poll also showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, while the two were tied in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
The Morning Consult poll The results, as Silver said, were a little friendlier to Trump.
He led Harris by two points in Georgia and North Carolina. Morning Consult also found that three states were in a dead heat: Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Silver also said famed pollster Ann Selzer’s poll, which showed Harris beating Trump by three points in Iowa, “is unlikely to matter” in determining the winner of the Electoral College.
But Silver was quick to dismiss the results as completely meaningless, saying Harris’ supporters were right to respond strongly.
“I think Harris voters are quite pleased with the Selzer poll,” Silver wrote.
Nate Silver, pictured, said Trump’s momentum ‘dried up’ in November, turning the race back on a coin
“At the very least, it confirms that in the final round of polls there will be plenty of numbers from high-quality pollsters supporting a Harris win — along with about as many numbers implying a Trump victory,” he continued.
“If Trump had ‘momentum’ in October, it is now gone in November. And we will most likely enter the race on Tuesday night as a true toss-up, not leaning or tilting toward Trump.”
Selzer has built a reputation as “Iowa’s Polling Queen” and the “best pollster in politics” over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls.
The ex-president tore up the investigation, calling Selzer a “Trump hater” and insisting that Iowa farmers “love him.”
“All the polls, except one heavily skewed to the Democrats by a Trump hater who called it completely wrong last time, have me WAY positive,” he said scathingly of Truth Social.
Selzer took time this weekend to explain himself on cable TV.
Ann Selzer has built a reputation as “Iowa’s Polling Queen” and the “best pollster in politics” over decades of conducting the Des Moines Register polls
“We don’t have as much data as we would like about why this is happening,” she told MSNBC’s “The Weekend.”
“But our consensus among reporters who work this way is that the abortion ban went into effect last summer… I think it got people interested in voting.”
Iowa has not voted for a Democrat in the presidential election since Barack Obama in 2012 and was written off by the Harris campaign as an easy victory for the Republican Party.
Like the polls, betting markets have also tightened in recent days, thanks in large part to the favorable Iowa poll for Harris.
As recently as Halloween, about 60 percent of bettors on platforms such as Kalshi, Polymarket and Predictit were convinced that Trump would win.
Trump’s odds are now no better than 54 percent on all three websites. Harris is even the favorite of 56 to 48 percent on Predictit.
The final DailyMail.com/JL Partners national poll before Election Day showed Trump overtaking Harris nationally by three percentage points.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percent, shows Trump trending upward, with support at 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent.