Are America’s grandma’s really about to hand Kamala Harris the election? Daily Mail’s pollster breaks down the truth of THAT shock Iowa poll

A new presidential poll has shocked the nation in the final days of the 2024 election.

Ann Selzer, a respected political pollster, released a survey on Saturday showing that Vice President Kamala Harris had suddenly opened up to a three percentage point lead in Iowa.

The surprising outlier investigation made headlines across the country as the VP was widely expected to lose the Hawkeye State — far from it.

Iowa has been solidly red for years. The state supported Donald Trump by almost ten percentage points in both 2016 and 2020. And Selzer’s September poll showed Trump beating Harris by four points. Her survey in June (when President Biden was still in the race) showed that Trump had an 18-point lead.

A 21-point swing toward Harris, in a decidedly Republican state, would certainly be cause for concern for the Trump campaign — especially since the findings revealed a glaring vulnerability for the former president: his support of women.

According to the Selzer poll, Harris leads Trump among women 56 to 36 percent. That rises to an astonishing 63 to 28 percent among women over 65.

These findings were seen as evidence of a “hidden Harris” voter in the 2024 electorate, who has so far flown under the radar — and now is poised to turn the race on its head as the sentiments of Iowans often are shared by others in the region.

If this “hidden Harris” voter exists in other Midwestern states (like Michigan, Wisconsin, and even Pennsylvania), Trump would be in big trouble.

Although, that’s a big one as.

First, everyone should be wary of reading too much into a single poll. While Ann Selzer has a strong track record of accuracy, no public opinion survey is infallible.

Additionally, there is considerable contrasting evidence to consider, including DailyMail.com’s own findings.

In the days leading up to the Selzer poll’s decline, the JL Partners/DailyMail national poll for October showed a 3-point lead for Trump. In September, Harris had a one-point lead.

The growing support for Trump appeared to come as voters rejected independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. were abandoned and undecided voters finally made their choice. (Only one in fifty voters say they have not yet made a decision.)

However, the Mail has discovered another trend that could indicate Selzer is on to something.

When we asked women how they felt about Trump, the plurality called him “corrupt,” while Harris was seen as “strong.”

More specifically, the Mail’s poll of undecided voters in Pennsylvania in October found that one of their biggest hesitations about voting for Trump was “what it would mean for women’s rights.”

With Republicans like former congresswomen Liz Cheney and Barbara Comstock backing Harris — and voters remaining stubbornly loyal to ex-GOP candidate Nikki Haley long after she dropped out of the primaries — it’s likely that right-wing women would turn out for the 2011 election. can go. vice president.

And indeed, since December 2023, Harris’ lead among women in the Mail poll has grown steadily, from one percentage point at the end of last year, to six points in August 2024, to 14 points at the end of October.

That’s a significant gender gap, but it’s offset by Trump’s +22 lead among men. And that’s ultimately why I don’t see clear evidence that Harris can only win because of the backs of women.

Of course, the Mail poll was among voters at a national level. Could it be that Selzer’s “hidden Harris” voter effect only exists in the Midwest?

Once again there is reason to be sceptical.

On the same day the Selzer poll was released, another Iowa survey was released by an equally reliable organization, Emerson College Polling.

This survey of likely 800 voters in Iowa found that 53 percent supported Trump and 43 percent supported Harris — and that the former president had majorities among both genders.

“Both female and male voters in Iowa support Trump, women by a five-point margin, 51 percent to 46 percent, and men by a significant margin of 17 percent, 56 percent to 39 percent,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Opinion Poll, said.

Selzer’s findings and Emerson’s results cannot both be accurate.

Perhaps an explanation for the discrepancy can be found in the way Selzer conducted her research.

After pollsters collect their results, they typically “weigh” the numbers to ensure their findings are representative of the overall electorate.

For example, if only five percent of survey respondents were young voters, a pollster could increase their influence to more accurately reflect the true percentage of young voters in the voting population.

Selzer ‘weighs’ for age, gender and voting district, but not for party registration. That’s not entirely unusual – and it has produced accurate results in the past. But in a state where the number of Republicans has increased sharply in recent years, such as Iowa, questions must be asked about the poll’s results.

Selzer has not published data on respondents’ party registrations, so it is impossible to know to what extent that factor did or did not influence the sample.

Finally, there’s one last reason to question Selzer’s poll as hard evidence of a “hidden” female Harris voter — and that’s the fact that Iowa (which is 85 percent white) is demographically different from Pennsylvania ( 75 percent white) and Michigan (74 percent white). percent white).

Harris’ challenge to win in the Midwest is complicated by what has happened to non-white voters since 2020. A growing percentage of them have turned away from the Liberal Party.

During a focus group I held in Detroit last week, I was amazed at the number of Black and Asian voters who told me they supported Trump. While Harris still holds a decisive lead among these groups, Trump has made historic gains among Black, Asian and Latinx voters.

Taking all these factors together, I think Donald Trump will enter Tuesday with a marginal advantage over Kamala Harris.

But anyone who claims that know whoever is going to win this race is lying to you.