Shock poll reveals Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Trump in Iowa
Kamala Harris shows a last-second surge in an unexpected area, the typically bright red Iowa.
One last Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Opinion poll just released shows Vice President Harris leading Donald Trump 47 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
It’s a total outlier and the first indication that the state has moved toward Democrat.
Polls in September showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris. The former president held an 18-point lead over President Biden in June before dropping out of the race.
But the tables have since turned, the new research shows, presenting a potentially new path to victory for Harris and her campaign.
A new survey shows Kamala Harris has a three-point lead in Iowa
Harris’ three-point lead is well within the poll’s margin of error.
Surprisingly, the survey also found that independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received three percent of the votes.
According to June polls, Kennedy had nine percent of the vote in the state.
The surprising lead for Harris is supported by independent female voters, who are expected to break for the Democrat as men turn to Trump in droves.
Harris has a 28-point lead over these women over Trump. Independent men, on the other hand, are breaking for the Republicans.
While another poll in Iowa shows that the race is firmly in the hands of the Republicans.
U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris acknowledges the crowd during a campaign rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, on November 2, 2024
Both Trump and Harris were in North Carolina on Saturday
Former President Trump and Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris are tied in the polls with three days until the election
An Emerson College poll showed the ex-president with a 53 percent lead and Harris with 43 percent.
Trump’s 10-point lead in that survey is safely within the three-point margin of error.
Both Iowa surveys were released Saturday, just three days before Election Day.
The latest election forecast model from JL Partners, provided to DailyMail.com on Saturday, also predicts bad news for Trump.
The model is moving from ‘lean’ Trump into ‘toss up’ territory.
Trump remains the favorite and he wins in 62.2 percent of the simulations.
But that’s a drop of 2.5 points since Friday and he has now lost seven points in five days, reflecting a series of polls that favored Kamala Harris.
Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump, looks at a video screen during a campaign rally at the Salem Civic Center, Saturday, November 2, 2024, in Salem, Virginia
According to Emerson, Trump has a 10-point lead in Iowa
All swing states have seen movement against Trump.
JL Partners data scientist Callum Hunter writes in his latest briefing note:
“It is now clear that the momentum of recent polls is in Harris’ favor. Trump’s odds of winning have fallen seven points in five days and if more polls are released showing similar patterns from recent days, the race will swing from LEAN Trump to TOSSUP before Election Day.”