CNN polling guru makes bold predictions about a sweep of the swing states for Trump or Harris
A CNN analyst thinks it’s likely that Donald Trump or Kamala Harris will “sweep” the battleground states.
CNN’s polling guru Harry Enten revealed Thursday that his election model suggests the presidential race will not be as close as some think.
Despite many polls showing the race in battleground states — and across the country — nearly even, the analyst suggested the race could actually end in a landslide.
When asked by host John Berman about the “historically close” race, Enten suggested one candidate could run away with it.
The pollster admitted that it is “more likely than not” that the presidential election will result in an “Electoral College blowout.”
CNN’s Harry Enten said Thursday he expects an electoral blowout, after previously believing the race would be historically close
“We have less than two weeks left in this election, and we told you how close it is. Historically close, closer than ever,” Berman began before asking, “What if it isn’t?”
Enten then started with a long explanation.
There is a “60 percent chance that the winner of this election will receive at least 300 electoral votes, compared to only a 40 percent chance that the winner will ultimately receive fewer than 300 electoral votes.”
“So for all the talk we’ve had about this election being historically close, whatever it is, there’s a good chance that the winner will still take a relative blow in the Electoral College,” he explained.
Enten also admitted that he had predicted several times that the race would be very close, but the new results from his model show that it is now likely that one candidate will collect 300 electoral college votes.
The threshold to become president is 270 electoral college votes.
Battleground states like Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Michigan could all be moving in the same direction, Enten said.
“If you look at the seven key swing states, the seven closest states, the margin right now is all less than two points,” the CNN analyst continued.
“But remember: Polls aren’t perfect, my friends. On average since 1972 in the battleground states, in the key swing states, the average error in the key swing states is 3.4 points.”
The analyst further described situations in which candidates who are underestimated in one swing state are underestimated in most swing states.
He later pointed to Obama’s 2012 victory and Trump’s 2016 victory as evidence that underestimations in one state often show up in other states.
“So this time, don’t be surprised if the swing state pollsters, if they underestimate one candidate, they underestimate them all in the states. And that would lead to a relative blowout in the Electoral College, with one of the candidates winning at least 300 electoral votes,” Enten continued.