The number of people with chronic pain in England will increase by 1.9 million by 2040

New research shows that almost two million extra people will suffer from painful backs, necks and other parts of the body by 2040 due to an increase in chronic pain caused by England’s aging population.

The number of people in England aged 20 and over with chronic pain will rise from 5.345 million in 2019 to 7.247 million in 2040, according to forecasts from the Health Foundation think tank.

That increase of 1.9 million means that the proportion of the population whose lives are devastated by the condition will increase from one in eight (12.4%) to one in seven (14.4%). That will increase pressure on NHS GP services and hospitals and also increase their spending on painkilling medicines.

Those in the 50 to 69 age group will be hardest hit, with some suffering so much pain that they can no longer work, adding to the record 2.8 million people in the UK who are already too ill to do that.

Women will bear the brunt of the increase, as consistent evidence shows that on average they are already around 50% more likely than men to develop persistent pain.

Pain is also an example of the vast health inequalities in Britain, with the poorest almost three times more likely than the best to suffer its highly debilitating consequences, which undermine patients’ ability to live normal lives. can nullify leading.

Ann Raymond, an economist at the Health Foundation, which carried out the research, said the increase was related to the expected rise in coming years in the number of people with musculoskeletal conditions such as various forms of arthritis, back pain and osteoporosis.

She said: “Much of our projected increase in chronic pain nationally is due to the aging of the population, as the likelihood of experiencing it increases with age. Chronic pain can have a significant impact on people’s quality of life and ability to work, and can have a knock-on effect on their loved ones.

“A review by the University of Cambridge of twenty conditions ranked chronic pain joints seventh in terms of its impact on individuals and the healthcare system. This means that people with chronic pain require more frequent GP appointments and emergency hospital admissions and are more likely to die.”

Raymond came to her conclusions after analyzing trends in painkiller prescribing and forecasts for the increasing number of elderly people over the next 16 years.

Dr. Benjamin Ellis, a rheumatologist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust in London, said the figures underline the “shocking human cost” of chronic pain. He said there would be so many additional victims in the future that it would negatively impact productivity and tax revenues.

“Currently, one in eight adults in England suffer from high-impact chronic pain – relentless, severe pain that prevents you from carrying out daily activities – and a fifth of people with this level of chronic pain are permanently unable to to work. These future predictions are of great concern.

“With almost two million more people living with chronic pain by 2040, the attention of policy makers and the NHS must now focus on the shocking human consequences of the devastating physical, emotional and financial impact of chronic pain on those affected, their carers, families and communities, as well as the broader costs to health care and care services, and to the economy as a whole.”

The looming pain wave is so great that the NHS must “rethink” how it cares for patients, to help them manage their condition, by providing them with major help from community health services, he added.

Chronic pain also affects many working-age people, not just retirement age, Raymond said. It affects 9% of 20-49 year olds, but 28% of people aged 50-69 in the poorest areas.

A disproportionate number of the additional 1.9 million patients will be among England’s poorest communities, due to increased prevalence there, she said.

For example, in 2019, one in four (25%) of women and 17% of men in the poorest 10% of the population had chronic pain, compared to just 10% and 7% in the richest 10%.

Nevertheless, the think tank’s findings are lower than those in a 2017 Public Health England reportwhich showed that one in three people suffered from pain that lasted for at least twelve weeks in the past year. But it was based on self-reported data from the Health Survey for England, and not on prescription data.

NHS England has been contacted for comment.