Betting markets reveal whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris is surging ahead for the first time since the 2024 presidential debate
The odds are now in favor of Donald Trump in the betting markets over Kamala Harris, as international gamblers bet their money on a possible return to the White House by the former president.
Trump has not led Harris in the United States in more than a month RealClearPolitics average of betting markets that allow bets on the winner.
The average now gives Trump a 50.1 percent chance of winning, compared to 48.6 percent for Harris, in a race that many political pundits now refuse to call because it is so close.
That puts him in a better position than the RCP average of national public opinion polls, where Harris leads Trump 49 to 47.
Even that average likely overestimates Harris’ position, because the winner is determined by state-by-state results, with Trump having a built-in Electoral College advantage.
Trump’s rise in favorability comes after a month in which Trump defeated Harris in a number of key battleground states, while Trump won in Arizona and Georgia, along with North Carolina (a state Trump held twice). He lost to Joe Biden in Arizona and Georgia in 2020.
Former President Donald Trump now leads the betting to defeat Vice President Kamala Harris
Harris has narrow leads in Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan.
Pennsylvania, where Trump is campaigning on Wednesday, is a dead heat in the RCP average.
Among a range of betting sites, Trump is now outperforming Harris on Bovada, Points Bet and Polymarket. He still trails her at 47 to 48 on Betfair, and they are tied on Bwin and Smarkets, making the outcome essentially an even-money bet.
DailyMail.com’s proprietary forecasting model helped Trump seize the lead in mid-September, coinciding with his gains in the state polls, despite voters declaring Harris had the best of him in post-debate polls.
In the intervening period, there has been strong economic data that could boost Democrats, along with chaotic events abroad that could help Trump, who has repeatedly warned of World War III if he is defeated.
Harris wins in 55 out of 100 simulations in the thirty-five blogmodel.