Polling ‘Nostradamus’ who predicted Kamala Harris to win the 2024 election reveals if an ‘October surprise’ will impact the race

Historian Allan Lichtman said a so-called October surprise would not stop him from abandoning his prediction that Kamala Harris will defeat Donald Trump in November.

The American university professor, 77, has developed his own election model that has correctly predicted every presidential winner since 1984.

He announced this at the beginning of September that Harris has achieved the crucial objectives for victory and predicted that she would beat Trump, and now he denies the idea that any kind of surprise between now and November 5 would change that.

‘One of the biggest myths of American politics is the October surprise. “I have never changed my forecast in response to an October surprise,” he said.

An October surprise historically refers to a major news event that occurs in the final weeks of a presidential campaign.

Lichtman relies on an unorthodox system — ignoring polls and experts — based on what he calls “13 keys” to the White House, a model he developed in 1981 with his geophysicist friend Vladimir Keilis-Borok.

Those keys, in his opinion, are able to withstand the test of any October surprise that could befall either candidate.

“The keys gauged the strength of the existing board and were not influenced by events during the campaign,” Lichtman said. CNN.

Past examples of October surprises include, perhaps most infamously, Hillary Clinton’s emails that led to the reopening of the federal investigation, or Donald Trump’s Access Hollywood tape.

In the 2020 election, some have posited that Trump contracting COVID-19 and the Hunter Biden laptop story and resulting cover-up would shake up the race.

The origins of the term date back to 1980, when the Iranian hostage crisis reportedly resulted in Jimmy Carter losing to Ronald Reagan.

In August, legal scholar John Yoo warned that Trump could be caught off guard by an “October surprise” at his sentencing in Manhattan, which would destroy his chances of regaining the White House.

Trump has desperately tried to delay his sentencing hearing until after the election, following his conviction by a Manhattan jury on 34 counts of falsifying corporate records.

He announced in early September that Harris had achieved the crucial goals for victory and predicted she would beat Trump, and now he denies the idea that any kind of surprise between now and November 5 would change that.

Lichtman says there is no such ‘October surprise’ that would cause him to change his prediction

But controversial judge Juan Merchan has consistently rejected his appeal.

While you’re talking to Fox News host Bill HemmerYoo said Merchan has the power to “order Donald Trump… to go to jail immediately.”

In May, it was revealed that US officials are preparing for North Korea to take increasingly “provocative” actions ahead of November’s elections, as Pyongyang strengthens longstanding ties with Moscow.

“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalating it is,” a US intelligence official told me NBC News.

It comes ahead of a likely meeting between North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who was re-elected this year with 87 percent of the vote after more than two decades in power.

Some escalating actions, whatever they may be, are expected to come close to the U.S. elections, according to intelligence officials.

Biden administration officials are raising concerns about the alliance, which comes amid an embrace between U.S. rivals Russia and China in the run-up to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The warning is reminiscent of 2016, when US officials accused Russia of election meddling. Special counsel Robert Mueller has charged 34 people, including members of a Russian troll farm with ties to the Kremlin, following his two-year investigation.