Poll shows Gaza could be devastating for Kamala Harris’ election chances: Trump LEADS the VP among Arab American voters

Vice President Kamala Harris is slightly behind former President Donald Trump among Arab Americans, according to polls released Wednesday from the Arab American Institute.

The survey found that 42 percent of likely voters favored Trump, while 41 percent supported Harris. Twelve percent plan to support a third-party candidate.

Normally, Democrats have a 2-to-1 advantage among this group.

But polls showed that “it is Trump who is capitalizing on the community’s anger and despair over the Biden administration’s inability to prevent the unfolding genocide in Gaza,” according to a press release.

The poll found that Arab Americans also favored Republicans in control of Congress by a small percentage (46 to 43 percent).

Vice President Kamala Harris (left) is slightly behind former President Donald Trump (right) among Arab Americans, according to polls released Wednesday by the Arab American Institute

Palestinian residents scour the rubble in the Gaza Strip on Wednesday. Arab Americans drift away from Democrats during the Gaza war, despite former President Donald Trump’s strong support for Israel

Although Harris regained much of the community support President Joe Biden lost after Oct. 7, she still trails Biden’s support level by 18 points four years ago.

Biden received 59 percent of the vote when he defeated Trump in 2020.

Currently, Arab Americans identify evenly across parties, with 38 percent saying they are Democrats and 38 percent saying they are Republicans.

Those who identified as Democrats rebounded from an all-time low of 23 percent in October 2023, the same month Hamas terrorists invaded parts of Israel, killing nearly 1,200 Israelis.

That started the war in Gaza, with Democratic President Joe Biden backing the Israeli counter-offensive on Palestinian territory, which has now killed thousands of civilians and razed large areas.

Gaza is a top issue for Arab Americans, with 81 percent of respondents saying it will play a major role in their voting behavior.

Both Harris and Trump could boost their support among Arab Americans if they demanded an immediate ceasefire and unfettered humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza or threatened to withhold diplomatic support and arms supplies to Israel.

Harris moves her numbers to 60 percent support from Arab Americans if she makes these policy changes.

Trump’s number would rise to 55 percent support.

The Democratic candidate has been critical of Israel during the war in Gaza, but continues to support the arming of the Jewish state, while Trump has been unapologetically pro-Israel.

Although Trump has a slight lead, within the survey’s margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent, Arab Americans are also less enthusiastic about their voting rights this year.

Traditionally, the voting bloc has hovered around 80 percent enthusiasm, but this year only 63 percent of the community said they were excited about voting, the report said.

Still, Trump’s lead increases when those most likely to vote are surveyed — with Republicans earning 46 percent and Harris 42 percent.