WNBA 2024 playoff predictions: can Caitlin Clark lead the Fever to a shock title?
What I’m most looking forward to
Obviously there is a large contingent of ardent, passionate WNBA fans who are not new to this at all. But I am looking forward to the first WNBA playoffs when the rest of the sports world has finally caught up: high-profile national TV coverage, dramatic storylines, podcast hand-wringing—it should all be here this time. And it’s about time. CDL
The semi-final between the Liberty and the Aces. This year’s clash of the superteams (and a repeat of last year’s WNBA Finals) will come a stage earlier than expected after Las Vegas dropped to fourth place following an inconsistent regular season. But don’t count out A’ja Wilson and the two-time reigning champions, because that’s dangerous. BAG
At this point, thanks to the ABSOLUTELY CRAZY behavior of Phoenix Mercury’s social media team, seeing the 42-year-old Diana Taurasi to participate in what appears to be her final post-season. SK
Minnesota plays spoilsport. The Lynx went an astonishing 13-1 after the Olympic break, easily the best streak in the league. That includes a nine-point win over top seed New York just a few weeks ago. While Minnesota isn’t what it was at its peak, when Maya Moore, Seimone Augustus and crew dominated the league, the 2024 team has become a formidable force with All-Stars Napheesa Collier and Kayla McBride. ALL
Caitlin Clark is …
…ready to play party pooper. She’s an absolute revelation, having entered the league with an astronomical amount of hype that she’s somehow managed to achieve (and then some). She’s had a rough start to the year, understandably so with so little time between the NCAA Tournament and WNBA training camp. But she’s found her groove, and while the lower-seeded Fever are underdogs against the formidable Sun, they’re prime candidates to disrupt the second-round party. CDL
…somehow manages to to exceed expectations. Let’s be honest: When the Fever stumbled to a 1-8 start with a depleted Clark handing out turnovers like Halloween candy, it was hard to imagine what kind of turnaround would come. But they’ve been one of the WNBA’s best teams since the Olympic break behind their rejuvenated rookie star, finishing with more wins (20) than Indiana’s last two seasons combined (18). BAG
…so cute! I stand without any apology. It’s incredible to see the astronomical growth of the sport and there’s no denying that Clark is a huge part of the reason why. She’s a generational talent like Leslie, Swoopes, Bird, Taurasi, Parker, Moore and Wilson. She’s amazing. SK
…the Tim Tebow of women’s basketball. Everyone has an opinion and will voice it, whether they watch the game or not. She has undoubtedly positioned the once-hapless Fever well for a deep run. It’s just… I try not to listen to all the whining when she doesn’t win it all in her first year. ALL
High sperm risk of premature expiration
About the Connecticut SunThey are my pick for the most vulnerable high seed. They are playoff tested and a well oiled machine with an impressive defense. In theory they should be able to handle a young and playoff green Fever. But I know better than to bet against Caitlin Clark when the stakes are highest. CDL
This time last year the Las Vegas Aces looked like one of the best teams we’ve ever had ever seen in men’s or women’s basketball since at least the KD Warriors. But since then, their defensive efficiency has regressed as a group, while once-manageable depth issues have doomed them. Their biggest problem? Sending six players to the Olympics, including the core four of Wilson, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young and Kelsey Plum, creating a fatigue factor that threatens to derail their three-peat bid.
I don’t understand how that could be possible, but… the Aces?! I mean, this is the Wilson world we all live in and they are by far my favorite teams to watch, but the Sun and Lynx don’t play games and it’s hard to imagine a scenario where the Liberty blows this opportunity. SK
The Connecticut Sunwho have the misfortune of opening their playoff campaign against the resurgent Fever. Among other things, they won’t get away with guarding Clark as aggressively as they did at the beginning of the season. First, she’s adjusted. Second, she’s the franchise. ALL
No chance of winning
It’s hard to say that the reigning champion (two years in a row, no less) is a long shot to win it all, but the Las Vegas Aces The Aces are certainly not going into the postseason as favorites. That said, despite their early season struggles, they have a super weapon in A’ja Wilson: someone who is not only the clear MVP of the league, but is also having one of the best individual seasons in modern basketball history. If the Liberty end up facing the Aces in the second round (as I expected), they’re in for a hell of a fight.
Storm in Seattle. If Jewell Loyd fully recovers from her knee injury and the Storm can endure a best-of-three first-round series with a Vegas team that looks as vulnerable as it has in years, their reward will be a date with top-seeded Liberty. But any team with Loyd, Nneka Ogwumike and Skylar Diggins-Smith on the roster will be a tough opponent. BAG
I have to preface this by saying that I don’t think it will happen, but I think this is what people want to hear: the Indiana fever win everything. SK
Atlanta dream. They were the luckiest of the losers, likely only making it to the playoffs because Angel Reese was injured before finishing her first season in Chicago. The Dream have no shortage of talent—not least former center Tina Charles, who’s been around and won a title and a league MVP. Plus, the Dream have been giving teams trouble all year. If they somehow manage to beat New York in that perilously short first-round series, watch out. ALL
Most important player this post season
Napheesa necklace won’t win MVP, because her rival is Wilson, who will rightfully win the award, perhaps unanimously. But Napheesa is absolutely having an MVP-caliber season, and it’s largely on that basis that I think (spoiler) the Lynx are the team to beat in this postseason.
Chelsea Grey. The point guard’s return from an injury suffered in last year’s WNBA Finals was the catalyst for the Aces’ early summer turnaround. Wilson will do her thing on both ends of the court. But if Vegas wants to flip the switch for the playoffs and reassert its defensive identity, Gray will have to do whatever makes life easier for Plum and Young. BAG
A’ja WilsonOh yeah Wilson, Oh yeah Wilsonnnnn. SK
Chelsea Gray. She lets the Aces go, and they struggled for momentum when she was sidelined with a foot injury sustained in last year’s title race. But with the “point gawd” back at the helm, the Aces are firmly on course for a three-peat. ALL
One bold prediction
There are (loud) rumors that this is a WNBA legend Diana Taurasi’s Last Fightand it would be shocking, yet wonderfully poetic, if the “White Mamba” were to close out her legendary WNBA career in true Kobe fashion by dropping 60 in her final game (I’m almost certain her Phoenix Mercury won’t make it past the first round). I’m assuming that’s the case. CDL
The Aces are swept out of the semifinals in the East. There just isn’t enough left in the tank. BAG
The fever is running at a crazy pace and turn off the sun early or Diana Taurasi did not make a single technical foul in the entire play-offs. SK
At some point Kamala or Tim Walz comes along – especially if the finals end in a tie again or if Minnesota pulls out a big lead. ALL
Playoff semi-finalists
New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever CDL
New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Connecticut Sun BAG
New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces (I told you I didn’t believe it), Minnesota Lynx, Connecticut Sun SK
New York Liberty, Las Vegas Aces, Minnesota Lynx, Indiana Fever ALL
The champion will be …
Minnesota lynx. If history has taught us anything, it’s that a lot of playoff success depends on getting hot at the right time. Sure, Liberty sailed through most of the regular season as, comfortably, the best team in the league. But lately, that best team has been Minnesota. They have a beautiful, selfless offensive philosophy, one of the best coaches in WNBA history in Reeve, and a bona fide MVP candidate in Collier. For months, it felt like Liberty’s time had finally come. But the Lynx are here, and they have other plans. CDL
Minnesota lynx. Collier and co have been on a roll since the Olympic break, winning 13 of 14 games before resting their stars in the final game of the regular season on Thursday, behind a stifling team defense that largely overshadowed the rest of the season. their stylish, democratic play on the offensive side. Drawn on the opposite side of the bracket from New York and Las Vegas, they will have as manageable a path as they could dream of to a record fifth WNBA title. BAG
New York FreedomPeriod. After last year’s near miss, this postseason is their chance to lose. After beating the Aces, it comes down to a best-of-five against the Lynx, where Stewie, Jonquel, Sabrina and co. will deliver NYC its first basketball championship in more than five decades. SK
Minnesota lynx. The Lynx are booming, poised and coached by the best player of all time in Reeve, who already led USA Basketball to gold this summer. If she’s on a roll, I wouldn’t bet against her — especially now that the seeding has put last year’s finalists on the other side of the draw. ALL