Kamala Harris takes lead over Donald Trump in 2024 race after strong debate performance
Vice President Kamala Harris has taken the lead over Donald Trump for the first time in our DailyMail.com/JL Partners poll, following her strong performance in last week’s debate.
But the stakes are still high, with only 49 days left until the election.
Harris now holds a one-point lead over the former president in our poll of 1,000 likely voters, conducted the week after the candidates faced off in the debate in Pennsylvania.
Harris is favored by 43 percent of voters (up two percentage points from our last poll on August 13), while Trump is favored by 42 percent (down two percentage points).
This shift appears to be the result of major changes among Hispanic voters.
JL Partners surveyed 1,000 likely voters from September 11 to 16 via landlines, mobile phones, online panels and in-app techniques. The results have a margin of error of 3.1 percent
Trump has lost 17 points of support, wiping out his lead in a group that could have been crucial in several key states.
His support among black voters has also halved, from 13 percent to 6 percent.
James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners, said the debate had helped Harris among three key groups since our poll in August.
“First, the Independents: she now has a four-point lead over Trump,” he said.
‘Secondly, the 50- to 64-year-olds, where she has reduced a 16-point deficit to just two points.
‘Third, Hispanic voters, who have been moving away from Trump in recent weeks. It’s hard to say exactly why, but given that the most notable political news of the past month has been the debate, that must have something to do with it.’
Latinos in particular were a key part of the coalition that led Biden to victory four years ago.
And Harris will likely need their votes in Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona to win in November.
Since unexpectedly entering the race in July, she has been fundraising and conducting polls.
Trump defeated Harris among Hispanic voters in August, but his support has since fallen
Our panel of independent voters declared Vice President Kamala Harris the best performer that night, viewing her as more presidential than Donald Trump.
Viewers thought Trump won on the key issues of the economy and the border
However, there were signs that the honeymoon was over, as her popularity in the polls began to level off.
Against that backdrop, she came to the ABC News debate with a point to prove and a plan to get under Trump’s skin. It seemed to work.
She immediately ridiculed his rallies, prompting the former president to repeat a wild Internet rumor that illegal immigrants were killing and eating pets.
At times he raised his voice and seemed distracted from his own plan to shine the spotlight on Harris.
JL Partners conducted a separate online poll to analyze voter attitudes. Respondents who said their opinion of Harris had become more positive were asked to explain why.
“The more I listen to her and what happened in the debate, the more positive I become about her,” said a 75-year-old male Republican who said he voted for Trump in 2020 but planned to vote for Harris in November.
Several other respondents also specifically mentioned the debate.
“I thought she was a bad candidate at first, but I’m starting to realize she’s the only option,” said a 22-year-old male candidate from Texas who voted for Trump in 2020.
Since the debate, Trump and his supporters have defended the claim that Haitians in Springfield, Ohio, are eating people’s pets, saying it highlights the difficulty communities have in coping with the arrival of newcomers.
Trump was also forced to defend his close ties to Laura Loomer, a right-wing conspiracy theorist who traveled with him to 9/11 commemorations last week, despite her once claiming the terrorist attacks were an inside job.
But on Sunday, the campaign took a new turn, sending headlines off the front pages.
Police arrested Ryan Routh, 58, after a gunman was spotted at Trump’s West Palm Beach golf course in what is believed to be an attempted murder.
Johnson said Harris could be pleased with her strong showing among Latinos, independents and voters between the ages of 50 and 64, but Trump had the advantage of an electoral college system, meaning she would have to dominate the national election results to win the White House.
“Of the groups where progress is being made, these three are among the best: they are bringing in a lot of voters and their results will determine the election,” he said.
“But we must not go too far. This remains an incredibly exciting election.
“Harris still relies on younger voters for the bulk of her support, a group that doesn’t always vote on the day itself. And even with those numbers, Trump would win the electoral votes and go to the White House.”