Democrats claiming Florida Senate seat is in play haven’t put money behind the effort to make it so
BOYNTON BEACH, Florida — Florida Democrats made bold claims last week about their chances in a state that has become increasingly conservative in recent years. But so far, they haven’t matched their words with the money needed to win there.
“Florida is in the game,” he proclaimed Debbie Mucarsel-Powella former Miami state representative, at the start of a bus tour defending women’s reproductive rights in Boynton Beach. Mucarsel-Powell is the Florida Democrats’ choice to challenge the incumbent Republican senator. Rick Scott for one of the few Senate seats the GOP is defending this election cycle.
Republicans outspent Democrats in Florida’s U.S. Senate race by about four to one through September 11, at $12.7 million to $3.2 million, according to data from AdImpact, which tracks ad spending by political campaigns and their surrogates. Based on ad slots currently reserved through the general election, that margin is expected to widen.
The dynamics of the Senate race mirror what happened in the presidential race in a state that was once hotly contested by the top candidates of both parties. Vice President Kamala Harris was not present at the launch of the bus tour and has not been to Florida as a candidate since she replaced the president Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate in the race against Republican former President Donald Trump.
The Republicans’ huge budget advantage may explain why Scott finds Democrats’ claims about Florida’s competitiveness ridiculous.
“They are so far removed from what the voters of Florida believe, they have no chance of winning Florida,” he said in an interview last week. “They have no chance of beating Trump, and they have no chance of beating me.”
Mucarsel-Powell says her side is more in touch with voters on issues like reproductive rights. She says voting changes on both abortion rights and legalizing marijuana will help Democrats mobilize voters. She also said the switch from Biden to Harris gave Democrats new momentum in Florida.
“This is a momentum that has been building for a while, and her announcement was just the tip of the iceberg of the momentum and energy that has been building here in the state of Florida,” Mucarsel-Powell said in an interview.
A nationwide AP-NORC poll conducted in July found that about 8 in 10 Democrats said they were satisfied with Harris as their party’s presidential nominee, up from 4 in 10 Democrats in March who said they were satisfied with Biden as the nominee.
But Mucarsel-Powell’s task remains formidable. While some polls show Scott narrowly ahead in the Senate race, Democrats nationally have yet to invest heavily in Florida’s expensive media markets. Harris, who has proven to be a prolific fundraiser since becoming the Democratic nominee, recently allocated $25 million of her own campaign funds to help Democrats on lower ballots in November — of which only $10 million went to U.S. Senate candidates. Harris’ campaign did not respond to questions about how those funds were allocated.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said it has spent money on staff and digital ads for the race, but did not specify how much. In a statement, it did not elaborate on future spending plans but said, “Scott’s unpopularity combined with the strength of Debbie Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign makes Florida one of Senate Democrats’ best offensive opportunities.”
Scott, who has set his sights on a Senate leadership position if he wins, said he would welcome a larger effort by national Democrats.
“I hope they spend a lot of money and waste it, because they have no chance of winning the Senate in Florida,” he said.
Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party, said national Democrats showed their support by starting their bus tour in Florida and sending campaign representatives there to support Democratic candidates. Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, who is in a strong position in her own re-election battle to advocate for other Democrats across the country, was among the Democrats who joined Mucarsel-Powell at the start of the bus tour.
“They could have started anywhere in the country. They started right here in Palm Beach County, in Donald Trump’s backyard,” Fried said. “That shows you how important Florida is, and that they’re going to continue to look at what’s happening on the ground, send deputies down here and make sure we’re in the game in November.”
About 150 people attended the bus tour.
Fried acknowledged that Democrats have spent less on advertising in Florida, but she said they are putting their energy into grassroots campaigning. She said 40,000 new volunteers signed up after Harris entered the race and that they are doing everything they can to knock on doors and reach voters by phone in Florida.
This year’s vote in Florida looks different from two years ago, when U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Gov. Ron DeSantis topped Florida’s ticket. The governor had hoped to ride a wave of momentum from his emphatic 19-point victory to national prominence, but was unable to loosen Trump’s grip on the Republican Party nationally.
Trump, who now lives in Florida, defeated Biden in Florida in 2020 by 3.3 percentage points, further eroding the state’s status as a swing state.
Brian Ballard, a Republican political strategist who was a key fundraiser for Trump’s 2020 presidential campaign, said the Democrats’ lackluster spending will make it harder for Mucarsel-Powell to introduce herself to people in the state who don’t recognize her, unlike Scott, who served as Florida’s governor from 2010 to 2018 and has served in the Senate since then.
According to Ballard, the national party’s lack of spending is “usually a sign of a lost campaign.”
“Florida is not in the cards,” Ballard said. “I hope the Democrats commit and spend a lot of money in Florida on the presidential race. It’s not going to move the needle at all. If she’s counting on the Democrats to spend more than the ticket, she’s counting on fool’s gold.”
The Florida battle hasn’t drawn much attention from national Democrats, who are trying to hold on to far more Senate seats than Republicans this year. Instead, they’ve focused much of their energy and resources on defending seats they already hold, including in red states Ohio and Montana. Still, the race for Florida’s U.S. Senate was close in late July, just before the Florida Senate primary, according to a poll of Florida voters conducted by the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab.
Scott said in the interview that he’s not “taking chances” by making light of his own race. And yet he has spent at least some of his time campaigning for other Republicans, including a trip across state lines to battleground Georgia last week for a town hall in Braselton, northeast of Atlanta.
“This is a team sport,” Scott said of his efforts on behalf of other GOP candidates.
Tiffany Lanier, 36, attended the bus tour in Boynton Beach on Tuesday morning. Lanier, a public speaker for Civic Engagement in Lake Worth, said that while Biden campaigned on a similar platform to Harris, she thinks Harris’ stance and emphasis on abortion rights is what really excites and motivates people to vote.
“I think it was more like my wild dreams that Florida would be in play in November,” Lanier said. “I know we’re very close in the polls, but I do see an energetic shift happening. And so I see a lot of opportunity here.”
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Chief election analyst Chad Day contributed to this report.