AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Hampshire’s state primaries
WASHINGTON — WASHINGTON (AP) — New Hampshire is among the smallest states in the country, but Tuesday’s primaries are intriguing enough to fill a much larger state.
The state of New England has an independent streak that makes it hard to categorize as red or blue. Although it has voted Democratic for the presidential candidate in each of the last five elections, it has also sent moderate Republican Chris Sununu to the governor’s mansion four times. Its four-person congressional delegation has been all-Democrat since 2017, but Republicans currently hold slim majorities in both chambers of the state legislature.
Tuesday’s primaries will set the stage for a revealing general election. Because of the pensions Sununu and longtime Rep. Ann Kuster, there are open races for governor and the state’s 2nd Congressional District. Both races have competitive Republican and Democratic primaries. And on top of those key executive and legislative races, every seat in the nation’s largest state legislature is up for election in 2024.
The Republican primary for governor will Kelly Ayottea former U.S. senator who has vowed to stay on the “Sununu path,” facing off against former state Sen. Chuck Morse, who has touted himself as the “only candidate for governor of New Hampshire who has endorsed Donald Trump.” Ayotte is the top fundraiser in the race, having raised more than $7 million so far.
On the Democratic side, Joyce CraigThe former mayor of Manchester, will face Cinde Warmington, the lone Democrat on the New Hampshire Executive Council (a five-member panel that approves state agency heads, judges and state contracts), and business owner Jon Kiper. Craig is the second-biggest fundraiser among gubernatorial candidates from either party, behind only Ayotte.
The 2nd Congressional District, which straddles the eastern edge of the state and is the bluest of the state’s two districts, has a Republican field of more than a dozen candidates. The top fundraiser is Vikram Mansharamani, an economist and author, with 2022 candidate Lily Tang Williams trailing by about $100,000.
But the Democratic primary, between political operatives Maggie Goodlander and Colin Van Ostern, has become a more expensive — and dirty — race.
Kuster has been advocating for Van Ostern, a former aide of hers. In an ad she filmed for him, she criticized Goodlander for not having lived in the district for decades. Goodlander, who worked for the late Sen. John McCain and at the Justice Department, was born and raised in the district but owns real estate in the state’s other congressional district. Van Ostern, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2016, is presenting himself as the candidate with more grassroots support.
Here’s what to expect on Tuesday:
The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday. The last polls close at 8 p.m. ET, though polls in most states close at 7 p.m. ET. Polls in two cities close at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Associated Press news agency will announce the voting results and declare the winners of the contested primaries for governor, House of Representatives, Senate, House of Representatives and Executive Council.
Voters registered with a political party may vote only in their own party’s primaries. In other words, Democrats may not vote in Republican primaries or vice versa. Independent or unannounced voters may participate in any primary.
New England states report votes at the township level, not the county level. Townships are smaller subdivisions, and many towns report all or most of their votes at once. The Associated Press will analyze those early results and compare them to previous election results, which can help determine whether they provide a clear indication of the winner.
New Hampshire counts the vast majority of votes on Election Night. No statewide races are called until the final polls close at 8 p.m. Historically, fewer than 1 in 10 ballots in New Hampshire are cast before Election Day because the state requires an excuse to vote by mail.
The state’s largest townships are Manchester, Nashua, Rochester, Concord, Derry, and Salem. New Hampshire has multi-member state legislative districts, with the number of representatives varying by town size, so these townships will have a larger number of state legislators.
Of these, Nashua, Concord and Salem fall within the 2nd District. Goodlander was born and raised in Nashua, while Van Ostern lives in Concord.
The AP does not make predictions and will only declare a winner if it has been determined that there is no scenario in which the trailing candidates can close the gap. If no race has been declared, the AP will continue to report on all newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make it clear that no winner has yet been declared and explain why.
There are no automatic recounts in New Hampshire’s primary, but a candidate can request and pay for a recount if the vote margin is 10 votes, or less than 1.5 percent of the total votes cast. The AP can declare a winner in a race eligible for a recount if it can determine that the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
As of June 28, there were approximately 891,000 registered voters in New Hampshire. Of those, 29% were Democrats, 34% Republican, and 37% were independent or did not specify a political affiliation.
In 2022, turnout was 11% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 17% in the Republican primary. About 8% of Democratic primary voters and 4% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before Primary Day.
In the 2022 primaries, the AP first reported results at 7:26 p.m. ET, or 26 minutes after the first polls closed. The election night count ended at 3:11 a.m. ET with about 88% of the total votes counted.
As of Tuesday, there are 56 days left until the November general election.
___
Associated Press editor Robert Yoon in Washington contributed to this report.
Follow AP’s coverage of the 2024 election at https://apnews.com/hub/election-2024.