Opta’s supercomputer backs Man United as more likely to LOSE at Brighton and suggests a reversed result from last season which could tilt title race… and which promoted team are set for first win?

Opta’s supercomputer has delivered its match predictions for this weekend’s second round of Premier League matches and believes Brighton have a better chance of beating Manchester United at the Amex Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

The 2024-25 Premier League season kicked off with a bang last weekend, with plenty of talking points following a cracking opening round.

VAR was again a hot topic, with Everton fans bemoaning the system following their 3-0 defeat to Brighton at Goodison Park, after the video refereeing system disallowed a penalty. Eberechi Eze also saw a free-kick disallowed by the system during Crystal Palace’s 2-1 defeat to Brentford.

Reigning champions Manchester City picked up where they left off last season with a 2-0 win over Chelsea at the Etihad Stadium, but questions still remain over the size of Enzo Maresca’s squad and their transfer deals this summer.

Arsenal are back in the hunt for their first Premier League title since 2004, with Mikel Arteta’s side beating Wolves 2-0, while a new-look Liverpool side, under Arne Slot, made a solid start to their season, beating newcomers Ipswich. One of the most interesting results of the weekend came on Monday night when Leicester held Tottenham to a 1-1 draw at the King Power Stadium, with Jamie Vardy announcing his return to the Premier League with a goal.

But there’s much more to come this weekend as Manchester United face the daunting task of beating Fabian Huzel’s Brighton at the Amex Stadium, who are fresh from a big win over Everton at Goodison Park.

Erik ten Hag’s team started the season well, but only managed to secure victory against Fulham at Old Trafford late on Friday night. Joshua Zirkzee scored in the 87th minute.

According to statistics experts Opta, Brighton have a better chance of going home with three points on Saturday. The Seagulls therefore have a 39.4 percent chance of winning at home, while the statistics agency gives the Red Devils a 36 percent chance of securing victory.

Despite winning the FA Cup last season, Ten Hag’s side endured a poor league campaign, finishing eighth in the table – United’s lowest ever Premier League finish. The Dutchman will no doubt be keen for his side to make a solid start to the 2024-25 campaign as his side push for a top-four finish.

Meanwhile, hopes are high for newly promoted club Southampton to secure their first win of the season after they were beaten 1-0 in a heated match against Newcastle at St James’ Park last week.

Saints take on Nuno Espirito Santo’s Nottingham Forest at St Mary’s this weekend, but Opta thinks Russell Martin’s side have a 39.3 percent chance of winning, compared to 34.4 percent for Forest.

Aston Villa take on Arsenal in a tasty clash at Villa Park, as Unai Emery returns to face his old club. With Arsenal coming off a win over Wolves last week, they go into the clash with a 51.1 per cent chance of winning, according to Opta, who have given Villa a 24.7 per cent chance of winning.

Elsewhere, two clubs who both suffered opening weekend defeats, Chelsea and Wolves, will face off at Molineux. It has been a turbulent week for the Blues, who, despite signing both Pedro Neto and Joao Felix in the past week, have been criticised for their business model and bloated squad.

However, Opta are backing Enzo Maresca to secure his first win as Chelsea manager, claiming they are 52.6 percent more likely to beat Gary O’Neil’s team. Wolves, on the other hand, have a 24.0 percent chance of winning, while a draw is 23.4 percent.

Tottenham host Everton in north London hoping to undo the misery of conceding a second-half equaliser to Leicester on Monday night. Ange Postecoglou’s side have a 61.8 percent chance of winning according to Opta, while Sean Dyche’s side have just an 18.4 percent chance of securing their first away win of the season.

Postecoglou looked dejected on the touchline after Spurs drew with Leicester, with the manager admitting his team were ‘not sharp enough and not composed enough’.

“It’s a disappointing result. We were very dominant in the first half, but really wasteful in front of goal. We started the second half in a similar way,” he said after the match.

He added: ‘I’m just very disappointed because we lacked a bit of sharpness in the front third and made some bad decisions. We lacked some composure and didn’t get the reward that our football deserved.’

More to come…