The bombshell story that hurts Kamala Harris most with swing voters and could implode her campaign – and it’s not what you think

After decades in public life as a prosecutor, senator and vice president, Kamala Harris has a long track record that could provide fodder for opponents.

Trump’s campaign could focus on her reputation as a liberal senator, her support for the chaos of the Black Lives Matter protests or a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

But the issue that could hurt her most is her support for a bail fund that would be responsible for the release of a man who went on to commit murder, our exclusive poll of likely voters shows.

It turned out that 54 percent of voters said this was a problem for her. While Republicans maximally addressed the issue, it was also the most problematic for independent voters who could decide the 2024 election, with a net negative rating of -43 (the difference between those who said it gave them a positive opinion of her and those who said it gave them a negative opinion of her.)

In contrast, her past support for federal cannabis legalization is seen positively among likely voters, with some 39 percent giving her a positive rating, compared to 27 percent who gave her a negative rating.

The results come from an online poll of 1,054 likely voters conducted last week by JL Partners.

And it shows where Trump can gain the most leverage and where Harris may need to beef up her defenses.

“If the Trump campaign wants people to think Harris is too liberal, dangerous or crazy, they need proof,” said James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.

“Our poll shows there are worse places to look than her bail fund decision when she was a senator. It’s real, relatable and alarming to voters of all colors and creeds.”

Trump’s campaign has already criticized Harris for her soft approach to crime and her support for the Minnesota Freedom Fund.

It was established in 2016 to provide bail to people who could not afford it.

Harris tweeted her support in 2020 after the death of George Floyd at the hands of police in Minneapolis, which sparked widespread protests.

“If you can, please donate now to the @MNFreedomFund to help pay bail for those protesting in Minnesota,” she posted.

In 2022, it was used to release Shawn Tillman, who was being held on suspicion of a serious misdemeanor charge of indecent exposure.

Harris voiced support for the bail fund in 2020 as a way to support the protesters

Vice President Kamala Harris at an event in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday. She closed the gap with Trump in our DailyMail.com poll

Workers construct a mural of Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President Kamala Harris outside the United Center on August 16, 2024 in Chicago, Illinois

Donald Trump has used Harris’ support for the bail fund in attacks on her

Days after his release in May 2022, he murdered a man in St. Paul and is now serving a life sentence.

Republican attacks tend to twist the story. Sometimes they claim Harris donated to the fund or that she supported a fund to free “murderers and rapists,” forgetting that her support was aimed at BLM protesters.

“One of the dangerous criminals that Kamala helped rescue from prison was Shawn Michael Tillman,” Trump himself said at a rally in Charlotte, North Carolina, late last month.

“You know that name. A repeat offender who was released with Harris’ help.”

Other arguments that did well in our poll included that she was responsible for the “root causes of the border crisis.” (Again, Republican attacks failed to take into account that President Joe Biden had asked her to address the “root causes” of migration in a limited number of Central American countries.)

And she could be vulnerable because of her previous roles in health care. In her 2020 presidential campaign, she pushed for a plan that would have abolished private insurance plans and replaced them with a government-funded system.

JL Partners surveyed 1,001 likely voters from August 7-11 in a separate study using a mix of online, landline, mobile and in-app technologies. The results come with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 points. They show Harris closing the gap with Trump

“Did you do this for Trump?” asked Kevin Munoz of the Harris Campaign when asked about his reaction to the poll.

Attacks on other issues, such as supporting BLM protests in the summer of 2020 or advocating a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, fare less well, with 24 percent and 30 percent of respondents supporting those issues, respectively.

“In a political campaign you have to find the message, but you also have to find the evidence to support the message. Without both, it doesn’t stick with voters,” said Johnson, the pollster.

“Crooked Hillary” worked because of her emails. Attacks on Trump for being a drama-filled 2020 campaign were bolstered by his aggressive debate performance and his record during COVID.

“Romney seemed out of touch not only because Obama kept saying it, but also because he could back up his 47 percent comment.” (Romney claimed that 47 percent of voters would vote for Obama anyway because they paid no income taxes. This wild claim ignored the fact that most of those people didn’t make enough money to pay taxes, rather than profiting from the opportunity to get a piece of the pie.)

Both sides, Johnson said, needed to find lines of attack based on solid foundations.