Why the progressive ‘Squad’ is getting smaller after defeats this primary cycle

WASHINGTON — The so-called “Squad” — a group of progressive lawmakers in the House of Representatives — will shrink next year after two members suffered primary defeats this election cycle following an unprecedented flood of spending by special interests.

The primary losses for Representative Cori Bush in Missouri And Jamaal Bowman in New York came in the summer and was a blow to the progressive faction, which had gained significant influence within the Democratic Party since its rise in 2018.

The group of Black and brown lawmakers — including Reps. Rashida Tlaib, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez and Summer Lee — were targeted by pro-Israel PACs like the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAClate last year after members criticized Israel’s response to the October 7 Hamas attack. Eight months later, AIPAC’s super political action committee, the United Democracy Project, helped unseat Bush and Bowman after they collectively poured nearly $25 million into that election.

Yet there were other factors that contributed to Bush and Bowman’s defeat, beyond their stance on Israel. This raises the question of the extent to which voters rejected their progressive policies.

Another member of the Squad, Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, easily won her primary on Tuesday against a repeat challenger, despite voting similarly to Bush and Bowman over the past two years and being an outspoken critic of Israel.

Here’s how the three Democratic primaries went:

Bowman was particularly vulnerable this election cycle because of the redistricting.

The new map of his district removed most of the Bronx and added more Westchester County suburbs, significantly reducing the number of black voters who played a significant role in Bowman’s re-election campaign.

Bowman then found himself in a strong contender in well-known county executive George Latimer, a centrist with more than three decades of political experience in the Westchester region.

Latimer entered the race with the support of Jewish leaders in the district who were upset with Bowman’s critical stance on Israel. He also enjoyed strong financial backing from AIPAC’s super PAC, which poured about $15 million into the race to support him.

The fight was largely defined by Bowman’s stance on Israel. Latimer hammered the incumbent representative for being more focused on Israel than on the needs of the district. Latimer also used his deep regional knowledge to make it clear to voters that he could be a more effective member of Congress.

Bowman, who was seeking a third term, also had to fend off continued criticism over activate a fire alarm in a House building as lawmakers were working on a funding bill. He said it was unintentional, but the incident drew waves of embarrassing news coverage and he was censored by the House for his actions.

The focus of Bush’s campaign ads in the final weeks before her August primary against St. Louis County District Attorney Wesley Bell was not so much her scathing criticism of Israel or its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, but a vote she and five of her Squad colleagues held in late 2021.

United Democracy Project, which spent more than $8.4 million against Bush, began running ads in local media highlighting the 48-year-old’s vote against an infrastructure bill signed by President Joe Biden that was supported by the majority of Democrats in Congress.

“This infrastructure bill that Joe Biden passed has been so good for working people in St. Louis,” one voter said during the 30-second ad. “Cori Bush voted against it.” Another added, “She voted against our jobs.”

Bush, Bowman, Omar and other progressives defended their vote against the bill at the time, saying it was a necessary position as they fought for passage of a separate social and environmental package. But their vote on the bill became merely a campaign issue for Bush.

Bush allies say the campaign to defeat her would not have been possible if Bell had not received the support of outside organizations such as the UDP. According to data from media monitoring company AdImpact, Bell spent more than $400,000 to air the half-minute ad.

“If you were to ask a voter in one of these districts at the beginning of this cycle, ‘Do you know how your congressman voted on the infrastructure bill?’ no one would say yes,” Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the progressive Justice Democrats, told The Associated Press. “No one was thinking about a vote that happened three years ago for a bill that passed.”

In addition to her record as a lawmaker, Bush has also faced a series of public and personal scandals in recent years, including an ongoing Justice Department investigation into her campaign spending.

Omar managed to avoid the fate of her two fellow Squad members and had several things in her favor. First, the African-born congresswoman, who has achieved a number of firsts since being elected to the House of Representatives in 2018, had the advantage in her primary on Tuesday of having previously defeated her challenger.

In 2022, former Minneapolis City Councilman Don Samuels fell just two percentage points short of defeating Omar with the help of the UDP, which spent six figures on the race. This time around, the third-term lawmaker took the threat from Samuels and a potential influx of AIPAC money much more seriously.

“I think the congresswoman and her team understood that there was a lot of work to be done to remind people in that district what kind of leadership she brought,” Andrabi said. “And I think she embodied that.”

Omar also raised significantly more money in the primaries, with her campaign reporting that it raised about $6.2 million. Samuels, on the other hand, raised about $1.4 million.

“What I was hoping for is that a strong ground game and attention to the details of people who felt left out would trump an overwhelming superiority in dollars,” Samuels said in a recent AP interview. “Money is clearly a little more important in politics than I had hoped.”

Omar’s significant fundraising advantage, along with endorsements from Minnesota’s Democratic Party and progressive leaders like Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, helped her win by nearly 14 points.

And perhaps the most important factor in her race was that groups like AIPAC ultimately stayed out of the race, despite threatening to fire any candidate they deemed not pro-Israel.

___ Izaguirre reported from New York. Associated Press writers Jim Salter in St. Louis and Steve Karnowski in Minneapolis contributed to this report.