Paul Ryan predicts Donald Trump will lose GOP nomination in 2024

Former GOP House chairman Paul Ryan has said he believes Donald Trump will not secure the Republican presidential nomination in 2024, and predicts the party’s voters will realize he has little chance in the general election.

Ryan, whose disdain for Trump is long-standing and well-documented, made the comments on Thursday in an “Insight Series” interview for teneothe consultancy where he is vice-chairman.

“Whether he’s running or not, I don’t really know if it matters,” Ryan said of Trump, who has been teasing his likely presidential bid for months. “I don’t think he’ll be the nominee.”

“I think Trump’s ineligibility will be felt by then,” Ryan said of the 2024 primaries.

“We all know he’s going to lose, or let me put it this way, we all know he’s far more likely to lose the White House than anyone running for president on our side of the aisle. So why would we want to go along with that?’

Trump has been teasing his likely presidential bid for months but hasn’t formally announced a run

Ryan argued that Trump has only maintained his significant influence in the Republican Party “because everyone is afraid of him.”

“They’re afraid he’ll go after them, hurting their own ambition. But once you get the herd mentality going, it’s unstoppable,” Ryan said.

Ryan, who ran for vice president on Mitt Romney’s unsuccessful 2012 ticket, has been a persistent critic of Trump, though he reluctantly endorsed Trump’s candidacy in 2016 after receiving the Republican nomination.

Trump called Ryan “disloyal” in the final weeks of the 2016 election after Ryan rejected his candidacy after a 2005 video surfaced of Trump bragging about groping women.

During the first half of Trump’s presidency, however, Ryan led the House majority GOP and had a tenuous working relationship with Trump, working with him to pass major tax cuts.

Ryan declined to seek reelection to Congress in 2018, when Republicans lost their majority in the House.

Trump and Ryan have a longstanding mutual dislike for each other, even though Ryan led the majority of the GOP House for the first two years of Trump’s tenure. They can be seen above in November 2016

In this week’s interview, Ryan predicted the field for the GOP’s 2024 presidential nomination would be crowded, but said candidates will be reluctant to announce first.

“I think people will delay their decisions and wait for someone else to take the first plunge to take Trump’s wrath, to make him go after that person and try to hurt them with MAGA voters so they can follow behind,” Ryan said.

“But the person who gets into the race earlier can organize earlier, can sign up supporters earlier, can sign up donors earlier, can jump on it better, so it’s really a total prisoner’s dilemma,” he added.

“There’s a handful of people who go running because it’s the only cycle they can run in. They can’t wait until 2028,” Ryan said. “They must go now, if they ever go. And they don’t want to die without ever trying.’

Aside from Trump, the Republicans considered likely candidates in 2024 include Florida governors Ron DeSantis, Kristi Noem of South Dakota and Larry Hogan of Maryland.

Former Vice President Mike Pence and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo are also expected to pursue the nomination.

Aside from Trump, Republicans considered likely candidates in 2024 include Florida governors Ron DeSantis (center), Kristi Noem of South Dakota, and Larry Hogan of Maryland.

Ryan’s comments came in a conversation with Kevin Kajiwara (left), an executive at Teneo, the consulting firm where Ryan is vice chairman

After former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard publicly left the Democratic Party this week, some oddmakers placed her as the GOP’s third most likely presidential candidate, after Trump and DeSantis.

Former UN ambassador Nikki Haley is also said to be eyeing a bid.

In his comments on Thursday, Ryan also predicted that Republicans will regain control of the House, saying the Senate’s future is less clear.

He also said the majority size of the Republican House will depend on suburban voters, who dislike Trump but are concerned about the direction of the economy among Democrats.

Ryan predicted that if voters focus more on the economy in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 8 election, Republicans will win stronger.

“Right now, the polls are showing it’s more about economics, and that’s why the Democrats are going to do everything they can to get it talking about Trump,” he said.

“He’s the Democrats’ weapon against us, he’s the baton against us, especially in our swing districts,” Ryan said.

“So the question is, is he in the news, up to date, in front of our faces on TV, ten, five, two days off, or not?”