PETER VAN ONSELEN: Redbridge poll shift shows signs of a political earthquake blowing up one of the most enduring truths of Aussie politics – that Victoria is a Labor state

The state of Victoria was once described as the crown jewel of the Liberal Party, but has long been an electoral wasteland for the centre-right party.

But that could change. It’s just one poll, but after almost a decade in power, the Labour government’s pre-election vote has plummeted, according to independent pollsters from Redbridge.

For the first time since 2017, the major parties are now both in a 50-50 vote, with two parties having a preferential vote.

While in other states the Liberal opposition has been crushed at elections, no other state has been as consistently pro-Labor for as long as Victoria.

Apart from a four-year Coalition term, during which many mistakes were made, the Labor Party has governed Victoria for the past 25 years.

That was recently under Dan Andrews. Since his retirement, Jacinta Allan has taken over the reins, but she is now embroiled in the CFMEU scandal and the fallout from the failed bid for the Commonwealth Games as a minister for which she was responsible.

But the shift is not just about that, it is about Victoria’s extraordinary debt burden and high inflation. It is all about the office at a time of economic uncertainty.

The poll results are a clear sign that the approaching election will be tough for most sitting MPs, not just in Victoria.

The fact that the polls have fallen without any sign of a turnaround says as much about the Victorian Liberal Party as it does about the current Labor government.

It is hard to overstate the Liberals’ ineptitude in Victoria. From scandals to factional differences, the state that gave the Liberals Robert Menzies is now a cultural and ideological Labor state.

And instead of trying to combat this, the Victorian liberals turned on themselves, spending more time attacking each other than their opponents.

According to this latest poll, preference flows could ultimately be the saviour for Allan and Labor.

Although the Labour government’s vote has fallen into the lower 30% of the vote, the Labour government still has a chance of staying in power for another four years when it goes to the polls in two years’ time.

It’s a theme voters across the country know all too well. Recent polls have seen Labor’s pre-election vote at the federal level fall to over 20, with Anthony Albanese still the favourite to be re-elected, only because of the Greens’ preferences.

It is a counterintuitive proposition: voters are concerned about their economic vulnerability during a cost of living crisis, but could indirectly return Labour to power with a stronger ally in parliament in the form of the Greens, who campaign on big-spending principles.

A scenario that many voters say will only make the situation worse.

Yet that is what our electoral system favours. Preferences allow the Greens to dictate terms, to some extent, when sitting Labour governments are on the nose but voters still have doubts about returning the Coalition to power.

However you interpret the decline in the Labor election result in Victoria at a state level, it will have implications for the Albanian government.

Since taking over as the Minister, Jacinta Allan has been embroiled in the CFMEU scandal and the fallout from the failed Commonwealth Games bid, while serving as Minister responsible for

However you interpret the fall in the Labor vote in Victoria at a state level, it will have implications for the Albanese government. Above, Mr Albanese and fiancée Jodie Haydon

For starters, federal Labor will have to confront Victorian voters before the state government does. That could mean state-level anger is directed at the feds.

This is one of the reasons why Albanese is considering delaying the federal election until after the Queensland election, so that Queenslanders can vent their anger at the state Labor Party.

He doesn’t have that luxury in Victoria, where elections aren’t for another two years.

The Redbridge, Victoria poll, conducted between July 23 and August 1, also found Labor trailing the Coalition among migrant and low-income voters.

That is the profile of many key marginal seats in the outer suburban areas that Peter Dutton is targeting, spread across the country, not just in and around Melbourne.

These voters are hardest hit by the tough economic times, as are homeowners who are struggling with rising inflation and the risk of further interest rate hikes.

The Redbridge poll also shows homeowners are turning against Labor after the state government increased property taxes.

The odds remain in Labor’s favour, in Victoria and nationally. It is, after all, only one poll.

But resentment and doubts about Labor are growing, and it is hard to see that trend reversing in an economy that is still struggling.