Veteran meteorologist reveals whether Trump or Kamala Harris can win

A forecaster with a 40-year track record of correctly predicting the winner of every presidential election believes Vice President Kamala Harris is on track to win the November presidential race. American University professor Allen Lichtman has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential election since President Reagan’s re-election in 1984.

Lichtman updated his tracker to reflect President Biden dropping out of the race and Vice President Harris last week winning the delegates needed to become the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. Based on his model that includes 13 factors, or keys as he calls them, the vice president is currently on track for victory this fall with less than 100 days to go until Election Day.

Lichtman’s model measures factors against the party currently in control of the White House, which is currently the Democrats. He said he will make his official prediction for the election next month, but Harris has a majority of his keys to winning in her favor. The factors that give Harris the edge include the fact that she has not faced a primary challenger, that there has been little threat from third-party candidates so far, and that the economy is strong in the short and long term.

With the switch to Harris, the White House has also made no major policy shift, the vice president has no scandal or major social unrest, and she has an uncharismatic challenger. Lichtman noted that with the switch from Biden to Harris as the presumptive nominee last week, Democrats have lost one advantage: the incumbent position factor.

With Harris and Trump now facing off, the professor believes the race is now effectively open. But he noted that Democrats could have avoided further fallout by throwing the party overwhelmingly behind Harris rather than launching a chaotic open primary or allowing other presidential candidates to jump into the race at this late stage.

“I haven’t made a definitive prediction yet. I’ve said I’m going to do it after the Democratic convention,” Lichtman told C-SPAN. “But I’ve said it for months, and I keep saying it, a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose,” he added. “That could happen, but a lot has to change.”

Lichtman also said the new energy put into Harris’ campaign could have a positive effect on several issues for her, including fewer people voting for third-party candidate Robert Kennedy Jr. and further slowing social unrest. “It’s a mixed bag, Biden dropping out and Harris’ presumptive nomination,” he said. “But it does change my assessment that a lot has to go wrong for the Democrats to lose, not fundamentally.”

Lichtman’s prediction comes as polls show the presidential race remains extremely tight with Harris at the top of the ticket. An average of the latest polls shows Trump ahead by less than two points, according to Real Clear Politics.

When it comes to polls in key contested states, Trump and Harris are also neck and neck now that Biden is no longer on the Democratic ticket. But the latest polls do show a jump in enthusiasm among Democrats, as Lichtman noted. Harris’ approval rating has also risen in recent days since becoming the presumptive presidential nominee.

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