COVID effect to cause ‘excess’ deaths in Australia for years to come

Australia may continue to feel the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic for years to come as more people die from the virus and its effects.

A report from the Actuaries Institute published on Monday found that about 8,400 more people will have died in 2023 than expected under pre-pandemic conditions.

That number is lower than the 20,000 “excess” deaths recorded in 2022.

Of the additional deaths in 2023, 4,600 were directly due to COVID-19, while another 1,500 were attributable to the virus.

According to the institute’s mortality figures working group, the significant drop in deaths between the two years has not prevented the figure in 2023 from being higher than during the years of severe flu before the pandemic.

“We believe that COVID-19 is likely to cause some excess mortality in the coming years, either as a direct cause of death or as a contributing factor to other causes, such as heart disease,” said actuary Karen Cutter.

“We believe that the ‘new normal’ death rate is likely to be higher than it would have been had the pandemic not occurred.”

According to Rezanur Rahaman, a lecturer in epidemiology at the Australian National University, the death rate could continue to rise if things like vaccination rates and the effectiveness of jabs are better managed.

“You could say that the excess mortality will continue for some time, because it is a highly contagious respiratory infection that will not die out anytime soon,” he said.

Andrew Hayen, professor of biostatistics at the University of Technology Sydney, noted that the report found the age-standardised death rate in 2023 was virtually the same as in 2019.

“We have already seen a significant decline in the number of deaths as measured by the Actuaries Institute, and we are likely to see a further decline in the death rate, particularly from COVID,” he said.

Professor Hayen said it was difficult to attribute deaths specifically to the effects of COVID-19, rather than to reduced health care during the pandemic.

“Many of the deaths in 2022 were likely due to displacement of mortality rates. There may also be issues with pressure on emergency departments and delays in routine care, such as elective surgery rates,” he said.

‘However, it is not possible to indicate precisely what part can be attributed to alleged causes.’

The actuaries’ report found that the local excess mortality rate of five percent between 2020 and 2023 was low compared to global norms, as the average was 11 percent.